Match Info

VHL

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Mostovik Arena (Kurgan)


	Zauralie Kurgan		Norilsk

	1	X	2
	2.23	3.89	2.8
	2.17	4.03	2.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.44)	3.96 ↑ (3.5)	2.79 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zauralie Kurgan
42.7%

Draw
23.7%

Norilsk
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

26.6%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

26.5%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zauralie Kurgan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Norilsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zauralie Kurgan than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Norilsk than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Zauralie Kurgan - Norilsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
20. Vinogradov Z. (G)	45. Nikitin V. (G)
3. Shikun A.	18. Alexeyev D.
79. Isayev I. (C)	43. Ugolnikov A. (A)
13. Ugolnikov A.	56. Mokin N. (A)
93. Kozlov I.	74. Lapshin I.
17. Lipanov A.	69. Skorikov D.
Line 2
61. Kozhemyakin G.	72. Korchemkin D.
50. Pozhidaev A.	98. Abdeyev I.
78. Komaristy A. (A)	91. Lazarev A.
34. Tagirov K.	86. Melnichenko K.
97. Bogdanov A.	55. Alkhimov S.
Line 3
67. Vasilyev K.	64. Minayev Y.
77. Belyakov F. (A)	28. Makeyev N.
11. Ryzhov K.	26. Bain M.
98. Govorkov R.	13. Kaletnik V. (C)
74. Govorkov M.	63. Yemets I.
Line 4
37. Afridanov I.	79. Chebykin Y.
66. Pasmanik L.	71. Golodnyuk S.
12. Kovyazin I.	89. Gorbunov D.
7. Baldayev D.	93. Korenev I.
Substitutes
60. Gorbunov I. (G)	88. Smirnov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
19:11, 0 - 1, Golodnyuk S. (G), Skorikov D. (A), Gorbunov D. (A2)

Preview

Zauralie has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Norilsk is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Zauralie may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Norilsk has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Zauralie won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:9. (average 2.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Zauralie won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:8. (average 2.5:4).

Last Results with these Odds

Zauralie Kurgan - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.2%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zauralie Kurgan
VHL
19.09.25	SKA-VMF - Zauralie Kurgan	2:3 OT ✺
17.09.25	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Zauralie Kurgan	4:0 ✺
10.09.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Neftyanik Almetyevsk	1:2 OT ✺
08.09.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Chelny	5:2 ✺
06.09.25	Zauralie Kurgan - Bars Kazan	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLWL
- HK Norilsk
VHL
21.09.25	Omskie Krylia - Norilsk	4:2 ✺
16.09.25	Norilsk - Tambov	2:3 OT ✺
14.09.25	Norilsk - Rostov	3:2 ✺
12.09.25	Norilsk - Buran Voronezh	3:4 ✺
06.09.25	Norilsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
15.02.25	Norilsk - Zauralie Kurgan	0:2
05.10.24	Zauralie Kurgan - Norilsk	3:2
12.12.23	Norilsk - Zauralie Kurgan	1:3
28.10.23	Zauralie Kurgan - Norilsk	2:6

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