Match Info

Liiga

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Isomäki Areena (Pori)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Ässät		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	2.25	4.2	2.6
	2.47	3.95	2.53
	2.53	3.81	2.54	Watch
	2.3	3.75	2.4
	2.41	4.1	2.46	Watch
	2.6	3.75	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.32)	3.93 ↑ (3.74)	2.5 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ässät
38.6%

Draw
23.9%

Kärpät
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

25.3%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

25%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Ässät - Kärpät Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ässät will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ässät: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kärpät will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Bednar J. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
67. Puutio K.	47. Bjork M. (A)
37. Maatta R. (A)	26. Tichacek J.
88. Olofsson J.	38. Raty Aku
44. Jarvinen J. (C)	33. Hirvonen R.
47. Tammela J.	73. Erholtz E.
Line 2
10. Nilsson O.	65. Nutivaara M.
3. Anttalainen A.	9. Soini K.
16. Noiva N.	93. Kantner M.
14. Sebok B.	11. Virta P. (A)
20. Talaja R.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
Line 3
55. Riihinen P.	25. Paaso A.
23. Heinila E.	55. Ohtamaa A. (C)
9. Lipiainen V.	12. Stalberg S.
74. Tiivola P. (A)	19. Tikka T.
93. Vanhatalo L.	59. Hermonen J.
Line 4
8. Viljanen V.	39. Juusola V.
26. Kim A.	51. Pietila B.
86. Knihti F.	28. Ojantakanen K.
63. Kostilainen S.	21. Viuhkola N.
Substitutes
39. Lindberg F. (G)	31. Vedenpaa V. (G)
Coaches
. Pikkarainen J.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
15:00, Nilsson O. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:35, 0 - 1, Raty Aku (G), Hirvonen R. (A),
03:06, Raty Aku (2 min),
04:42, 1 - 1, Lipiainen V. (G), Maatta R. (A), Noiva N. (A2)
14:21, Juusola V. (2 min),
3rd Period (3 - 2)
04:10, Viljanen V. (2 min),
04:10, Heikkala V. (2 min),
05:16, 2 - 1, Knihti F. (G), Kim A. (A), Kostilainen S. (A2)
07:29, 2 - 2, Stalberg S. (G), Tikka T. (A),
09:26, 3 - 2, Tammela J. (G), Jarvinen J. (A), Olofsson J. (A2)
10:01, 4 - 2, Talaja R. (G), Viljanen V. (A), Anttalainen A. (A2)
11:54, Kantner M. (2 min),
12:53, 4 - 3, Tikka T. (G),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 4.

Recent form of Ässät has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Kärpät has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ässät won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 40:55. (average 2:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ässät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 2.3:2.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.74%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Kärpät - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 34%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
30.12.25	Vaasan Sport - Ässät	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	Ässät - HPK	4:3 OT ✺
20.12.25	Pelicans - Ässät	2:1 OT ✺
19.12.25	Ässät - Pelicans	1:2 penalties ✺
13.12.25	Lukko - Ässät	8:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLLL
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
03.01.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	6:0 ✺
30.12.25	Ilves - Kärpät	3:2 OT ✺
27.12.25	Kärpät - JYP	2:4 ✺
26.12.25	JYP - Kärpät	5:3 ✺
20.12.25	Kärpät - Mikkelin Jukurit	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
28.10.25	Kärpät - Ässät	2:4
20.09.25	Ässät - Kärpät	5:2
01.03.25	Ässät - Kärpät	3:1
15.01.25	Kärpät - Ässät	5:2
30.11.24	Kärpät - Ässät	1:4
20.09.24	Ässät - Kärpät	4:5 OT
07.02.24	Kärpät - Ässät	2:1

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