The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Castleford Tigers 18.5%
Draw 3.4%
St Helens 78.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
25.2%
3.8%
71.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.2%
4%
68.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castleford Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castleford Tigers's form might have worsened.
St Helens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St Helens's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castleford Tigers than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castleford Tigers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Helens than the current prediction. (-9.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St Helens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
100%
Castleford Tigers - St Helens Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. St Helens will win (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 19:32
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
2. Valemei S.
1. Welsby J.
3. Cini Z.
4. Percival M.
6. Asi D.
5. Cross D.
7. Weaver T.
6. Sailor T.
10. Lawler G.
9. Clark D.
11. Lane J.
11. Sironen C.
12. Mellor A.
13. Klemmer D.
13. Stimson J.
15. Delaney G.
22. Qareqare J.
16. Whitley M.
23. Mapapalangi K.
20. Murphy L.
31. Golding A.
22. Shorrocks J.
35. Laulu-Togagae P.
24. Dagnall O.
36. Dupree T.
31. Hastings J.
Substitutes
8. Atoni R.
7. Lomax J.
14. Greacen B.
8. Walmsley A.
21. Senior L.
14. Wright S.
25. Hall S.
21. Stephens N.
27. Robb C.
28. Davies J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (10 - 0)
5', Qareqare J. (Try),
36', Weaver T. (Penalty Goal),
38', Qareqare J. (Try),
2nd Half (20 - 10)
45', Greacen B. (Try),
47', Weaver T. (Conversion Goal),
51', Murphy L. (Try),
54', Qareqare J. (Try),
60', Weaver T. (Penalty Goal),
69', Weaver T. (Conversion Goal),
74', Golding A. (Try),
75', Weaver T. (Conversion Goal),
80', Dagnall O. (Try),
80+2', (Conversion Goal),
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castleford won 0.
Recent performances by Castleford have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
St Helens is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
St Helens may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, St Helens is the team to beat.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Castleford won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 194:526. (average 9.7:26.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Castleford won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 110:286. (average 12.2:31.8).
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Valemei S. 
Welsby J. 
Cini Z. 
Mapapalangi K. 
Golding A. 
Senior L. 
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