Match Info

NRL - Round 22

Date: 31 July 2026, Friday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Sutton G. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+


	Melbourne Storm		Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

	1	X	2
	3.6	26	1.3
	3.6	18	1.35
	2.78	22.96	1.49	Watch
	3.83	21	1.26
	3.05	23	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (1.61)	22.19 (22.19)	1.36 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 42.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Storm
27.6%

Draw
4.2%

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
68.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.9%

4.2%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

4.1%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-30.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne Storm's form might have worsened.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+30.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+28.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne Storm, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs than the current prediction. (-29%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Melbourne Storm - Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Melbourne will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Canterbury-Bankstown will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 43.5 - under (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 16:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Faalogo S.	1. Tracey C.
2. Tuimalatu-Brown S.	2. Kiraz J.
3. Waitere M.	3. Burton M.
4. Meaney N.	4. Tuala E.
5. Leo M.	5. Rinakama J.
6. Wishart T.	6. Crichton S. (C)
8. Utoikamanu S.	7. Galvin L.
9. Toelau T.	8. King M.
10. King J. (C)	9. Hayward B.
11. Clarke C.	10. Thompson L.
12. Keeley O.	11. Kikau V.
13. Loiero T.	12. Preston J.
14. Watson H.	13. Salmon J.
Substitutes
15. MacDonald A.	14. Mann K.
16. Hetherington J.	15. Curran J.
17. Blore S.	16. Hayes H.
18. Chan J.	17. Alekolasimi J.
19. Hinchey A.	20. O'Sullivan S.
22. Bowden J.	23. Sua J.
Coaches
. Bellamy C.	. Ciraldo C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (16 - 16)
6', Leo M. (Try),
8', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
16', Salmon J. (Try),
18', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
21', Faalogo S. (Try),
23', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
25', Rinakama J. (Try),
27', Crichton S. (Missed Conversion),
31', Salmon J. (Try),
32', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
40', Leo M. (Try),
40', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (6 - 20)
48', Hinchey A. (Try),
49', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
51', Burton M. (Try),
52', Crichton S. (Missed Conversion),
62', Curran J. (Try),
63', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),
70', Crichton S. (Try),
71', Crichton S. (Missed Conversion),
78', Crichton S. (Try),
80', Crichton S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.

Melbourne has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Canterbury-Bankstown is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Canterbury-Bankstown has had a series of home games.

Canterbury-Bankstown could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 395:369. (average 19.8:18.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 219:168. (average 19.9:15.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Melbourne Storm - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.9%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
24.07.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	28:26 ✺
17.07.26	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	14:6 ✺
12.07.26	Melbourne Storm - Gold Coast Titans	22:18 ✺
27.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	30:4 ✺
21.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	42:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLW
- Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Australian NRL
25.07.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - New Zealand Warriors	18:6 ✺
18.07.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Wests Tigers	32:0 ✺
11.07.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Canberra Raiders	16:40 ✺
26.06.26	Gold Coast Titans - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	12:30 ✺
20.06.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	13:12 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
22.05.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Melbourne Storm	30:20
12.09.25	Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	26:18
22.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	20:14
12.04.24	Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	16:14
15.02.24	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Melbourne Storm	24:12
11.03.23	Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	12:26
03.04.22	Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	44:0

Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide