Match Info

NRL - Round 16

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Smith T. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action


	Melbourne Storm		Canberra Raiders

	1	X	2
	1.38	26	3.1
	1.42	22	3.2
	1.4	22.78	3.18	Watch
	1.4	23	3.1
	1.36		3.10	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.36)	18.76 ↓ (22.41)	3.14 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Storm
65.9%

Draw
4.9%

Canberra Raiders
29.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.5%

4.2%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

4.3%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Canberra Raiders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra Raiders than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Faalogo S.	1. Weekes K.
2. Warbrick W.	2. Tamale S.
3. Howarth J.	3. Kris S.
4. Chan J.	4. Timoko M.
5. Moses L.	5. Savage X.
6. Munster C.	6. Strange E.
7. Hughes J.	7. Sanders E.
8. Utoikamanu S.	8. Horsburgh C.
10. King J.	10. Tapine J.
11. Clarke C.	11. Young H.
12. Lisati A.	12. Hosking Z.
13. Loiero T.	13. Brailey J.
14. Toelau T.	14. Pattie O.
Substitutes
9. Grant H.	9. Starling T.
15. MacDonald A.	15. Mariota A.
16. Hetherington J.	16. Smithies M.
18. Blore S.	17. Laurie D.
19. Wishart T.	18. Stuart J.
22. Tuimalatu-Brown S.	19. Patuki-Case V.
Coaches
. Bellamy C.	. Stuart R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 20)
3', Tamale S. (Try),
4', Sanders E. (Missed Conversion),
9', Pattie O. (Try),
9', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
17', Savage X. (Try),
19', Sanders E. (Conversion Goal),
22', Warbrick W. (Try),
22', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
24', Lisati A. (Try),
24', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
28', Munster C. (Try),
29', Faalogo S. (Missed Conversion),
36', Timoko M. (Try),
38', Sanders E. (Missed Conversion),
40', Warbrick W. (Try),
40', Grant H. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (22 - 0)
60', Warbrick W. (Try),
61', Faalogo S. (Missed Conversion),
68', Moses L. (Try),
70', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
71', Faalogo S. (Try),
73', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
79', Toelau T. (Try),
80', Munster C. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 2.

Melbourne is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Canberra has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Canberra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Canberra has had a series of home games.

In this match, Melbourne is considered a favorite.

We predict that Melbourne will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 452:308. (average 22.6:15.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 298:186. (average 22.9:14.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
05.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights	32:30 ✺
30.05.26	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	18:4 ✺
22.05.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Melbourne Storm	30:20 ✺
16.05.26	Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm	8:34 ✺
10.05.26	Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers	44:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWW
- Canberra Raiders
Australian NRL
13.06.26	Parramatta Eels - Canberra Raiders	15:12 ✺
05.06.26	Canberra Raiders - Sydney Roosters	0:26 ✺
31.05.26	Canberra Raiders - North Queensland Cowboys	26:12 ✺
21.05.26	Canberra Raiders - Dolphins	22:30 ✺
10.05.26	Canberra Raiders - Penrith Panthers	18:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
17.04.26	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	26:22
13.02.26	Canberra Raiders - Melbourne Storm	32:6
04.05.25	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	18:20 OT
29.06.24	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	16:6
13.08.23	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	48:2
10.09.22	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	20:28
17.07.22	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	16:20

Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide