What is the expert prediction for South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, June 21, 2025)

Match Info

NRL - Round 16

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Accor Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Fox League, NRL
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	South Sydney Rabbitohs		Melbourne Storm

	1	X	2
	4.75	26	1.2
	3.8	26	1.25
				Watch
				Watch
	4.55	26	1.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↑ (3.01)	26 (26)	1.22 ↓ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Sydney Rabbitohs
21.1%

Draw
3.5%

Melbourne Storm
75.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

3.6%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

3.6%

65.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Sydney Rabbitohs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that South Sydney Rabbitohs's form might have worsened.

Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne Storm's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Sydney Rabbitohs than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for South Sydney Rabbitohs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne Storm, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +11.5 - Melbourne (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +13.5 - South Sydney (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. South Sydney (votes: 1 - 50%). Melbourne (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:33

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mitchell L.	1. Papenhuyzen R.
2. Johnston A.	2. Anderson G.
3. Wighton J.	3. Howarth J.
4. Tass I.	4. Meaney N.
5. Munro T.	6. Munster C.
7. Humphreys J.	7. Hughes J.
8. Arrow J.	9. Grant H.
9. Havili S.	10. King J.
10. Moale D.	11. Blore S.
11. Aitken E.	12. Katoa E.
12. Duncan T.	15. Asofa-Solomona N.
13. Hubner L.	16. Kamikamica T.
19. Koloamatangi K.	20. Faalogo S.
Substitutes
14. Gray R.	8. Utoikamanu S.
15. Keppie S.	13. Loiero T.
16. Le Blanc L.	14. Wishart T.
17. Tatola T.	19. MacDonald A.
Coaches
. Bennett W.	. Bellamy C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 12)
4', Grant H. (Try),
5', Papenhuyzen R. (Conversion Goal),
6', Hughes J. (Try),
7', Papenhuyzen R. (Conversion Goal),
27', Johnston A. (Try),
28', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (20 - 12)
44', Johnston A. (Try),
45', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
47', Johnston A. (Try),
49', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
52', Anderson G. (Try),
54', Johnston A. (Try),
54', Papenhuyzen R. (Conversion Goal),
55', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
69', Wishart T. (Try),
71', Papenhuyzen R. (Conversion Goal),
77', Munro T. (Try),
78', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
Extra Time (0 - 1)
84', Papenhuyzen R. (Drop Goal),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Sydney won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melbourne is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, South Sydney won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 308:512. (average 15.4:25.6).

Including home matches between the teams, South Sydney won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 144:235. (average 14.4:23.5).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Sydney Rabbitohs
Australian NRL
15.06.25	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	18:24 ✺
08.06.25	Canberra Raiders - South Sydney Rabbitohs	36:12 ✺
01.06.25	South Sydney Rabbitohs - New Zealand Warriors	30:36 ✺
18.05.25	Wests Tigers - South Sydney Rabbitohs	12:22 ✺
09.05.25	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Brisbane Broncos	22:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLLWW
- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
06.06.25	Melbourne Storm - North Queensland Cowboys	38:14 ✺
31.05.25	Gold Coast Titans - Melbourne Storm	16:28 ✺
17.05.25	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Melbourne Storm	31:26 ✺
11.05.25	Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers	64:0 ✺
04.05.25	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	18:20 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
25.04.25	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	24:16
08.08.24	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	16:28
25.04.24	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	54:20
06.05.23	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	12:28
31.03.23	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	10:18
23.07.22	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Melbourne Storm	24:12
17.03.22	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	15:14 OT

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