Match Info

NRL - Round 20

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Sydney Football Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
France	beIN Sports 2
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2


	Sydney Roosters		Melbourne Storm

	1	X	2
	1.27	26	3.9
	1.28	18	4
	1.27	22.88	4.06	Watch
	1.25		3.75
	1.27	25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.47)	18.38 ↓ (22.2)	3.94 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Sydney Roosters
71.9%

Draw
5%

Melbourne Storm
23.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.3%

4.2%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

4.6%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sydney Roosters has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sydney Roosters's performance.

Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Melbourne Storm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Roosters than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sydney Roosters that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne Storm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Sydney will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Melbourne will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sydney (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 44.5 - over (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:18

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ramsey C.	1. Faalogo S.
2. Tupou D.	2. Warbrick W.
3. Smith B.	3. Howarth J.
4. Savala H.	4. Meaney N.
5. Nawaqanitawase M.	6. Wishart T.
6. Cherry-Evans D.	7. Toelau T.
7. Walker S.	8. Utoikamanu S.
8. Whyte N.	9. Grant H.
9. Robson R.	10. King J.
10. Leniu S.	11. Clarke C.
11. Butcher N.	12. Keeley O.
12. Wong S.	13. Loiero T.
13. Radley V.	19. Tuimalatu-Brown S.
Substitutes
14. Watson C.	14. Satrick G.
15. Foketi S.	15. Hetherington J.
16. Butcher E.	16. Pahulu J.
17. Losalu T.	17. MacDonald A.
18. Bassingthwaighte R.	18. Huen S.
19. Talau T.	20. Moale D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (8 - 0)
6', Wong S. (Try),
8', Walker S. (Missed Conversion),
26', Smith B. (Try),
28', Walker S. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (6 - 6)
58', Utoikamanu S. (Try),
59', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
75', Tupou D. (Try),
77', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Recently, Melbourne has had a series of home games.

In this match, Sydney is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 320:455. (average 16:22.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sydney won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 129:204. (average 14.3:22.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sydney Roosters
Australian NRL
11.07.26	Sydney Roosters - Parramatta Eels	28:12 ✺
26.06.26	Brisbane Broncos - Sydney Roosters	18:24 ✺
21.06.26	Sydney Roosters - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	27:8 ✺
12.06.26	Dolphins - Sydney Roosters	48:10 ✺
05.06.26	Canberra Raiders - Sydney Roosters	0:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWLW
- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
12.07.26	Melbourne Storm - Gold Coast Titans	22:18 ✺
27.06.26	Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles - Melbourne Storm	30:4 ✺
21.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Canberra Raiders	42:20 ✺
05.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights	32:30 ✺
30.05.26	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	18:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
30.05.26	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	18:4
29.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	10:40
24.07.25	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	30:34
27.09.24	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	48:18
20.07.24	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	24:8
18.04.24	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	12:18
15.09.23	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	18:13

Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide