Match Info
NRL - Play Offs - Semi-finalsDate: 26 September 2025, FridayLocation: AAMI Park (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | 9 HD, Fox League, Nine, NRL |
 France | beIN Sports 1 |
 Germany | Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+ |
 United-kingdom | Sky Go |
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Melbourne Storm |
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Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.4 |
21 |
3.1 |
|
 |
1.38 |
22 |
3.4 |
|
 |
1.19 |
18.15 |
5.29 |
 Watch |
 |
1.37 |
20 |
3.24 |
|
 |
1.36 |
21 |
3.4 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.34 ↓
(1.41) |
20.43 ↓
(23.5) |
3.69 ↑
(3.08) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 42.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)
- The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Melbourne Storm
70% | Draw
4.6% | Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
25.4% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)The ML Model estimate for Melbourne Storm aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks than the current prediction. (+3%)Melbourne Storm - Cronulla Sutherland Sharks Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Cronulla-Sutherland will win (votes: 4 - 100%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cronulla-Sutherland (votes: 2 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:17 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Papenhuyzen R.
| 1.  Kennedy W.
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2.  Warbrick W.
| 2. Katoa S.
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3. Howarth J.
| 3. Ramien J.
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4. Meaney N.
| 4.  Iro K.
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5.  Coates X.
| 5. Mulitalo R.
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6. Munster C.
| 6. Trindall B.
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7. Hughes J.
| 7. Hynes N.
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8. Utoikamanu S.
| 8.  Fonua-Blake A.
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9. Grant H. (C)
| 9. Brailey B. (C)
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10. King J.
| 10. Rudolf T.
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12. Katoa E.
| 11. Burns B.
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13. Loiero T.
| 12. Wilton T.
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15.  Blore S.
| 13. Colquhoun J.
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| Substitutes |
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11. Lisati A.
| 14. Nikora B.
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14. Wishart T.
| 15. Talakai S.
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16.  Kamikamica T.
| 16. Kaufusi O.
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17. MacDonald A.
| 17. Hamlin-Uele B.
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20.  Chan J.
| 18.  Atkinson D.
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| Coaches |
|---|
. Bellamy C.
| . Fitzgibbon C.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (16 - 8)
- 7', Warbrick W. (Try),
- 8', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
- 12', Katoa S. (Try),
- 14', Hynes N. (Missed Conversion),
- 16', Hughes J. (Try),
- 17', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 30', Katoa S. (Try),
- 32', Hynes N. (Missed Conversion),
- 36', Papenhuyzen R. (Try),
- 37', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (6 - 6)
- 59', Hynes N. (Penalty Goal),
- 66', Meaney N. (Penalty Goal),
- 75', Coates X. (Try),
- 76', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
- 80', Iro K. (Try),
- 80+1', Hynes N. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.In recent matches, Melbourne has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).Cronulla-Sutherland is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).Cronulla-Sutherland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Melbourne is a strong favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 447:299. (average 22.4:15).Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 329:153. (average 27.4:12.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 29.06.25 | Melbourne Storm - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 30:6 | | 17.05.25 | Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Melbourne Storm | 31:26 | | 14.09.24 | Melbourne Storm - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 37:10 | | 11.05.24 | Melbourne Storm - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 18:25 | | 11.06.23 | Melbourne Storm - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 54:10 | | 07.07.22 | Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Melbourne Storm | 28:6 | | 16.04.22 | Melbourne Storm - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 34:18 |
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