The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Brisbane Broncos 39%
Draw 4.7%
Melbourne Storm 56.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
48.9%
4.1%
46.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
51.7%
3.9%
44.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Brisbane Broncos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brisbane Broncos's form might have worsened.
Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne Storm's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Broncos than the current prediction. (+12.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brisbane Broncos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (-11.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne Storm, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:28
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Perham H.
1. Faalogo S.
2. Karapani J.
2. Tuimalatu-Brown S.
3. Staggs K.
3. Wishart T.
4. Mariner D.
4. Meaney N.
5. Anderson G.
5. Leo M.
6. Mam E.
6. Munster C.
7. Hunt B.
7. Hughes J.
8. Willison X.
8. Utoikamanu S.
9. Walters B.
9. Grant H.
10. Haas P.
10. King J.
11. Hunt J.
11. Blore S.
12. Riki J.
12. Keeley O.
13. Carrigan P.
13. Loiero T.
Substitutes
14. Mozer B.
14. Toelau T.
15. Tawha A.
15. MacDonald A.
16. Gosiewski J.
16. Hetherington J.
17. Semu V.
17. Clarke C.
18. Duffy T.
18. Hinchey A.
19. Shibasaki G.
19. Seve M.
Coaches
. Maguire M.
. Bellamy C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (10 - 30)
15', Utoikamanu S. (Try),
16', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
18', Staggs K. (Try),
20', Perham H. (Missed Conversion),
22', Meaney N. (Try),
23', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
27', Wishart T. (Try),
29', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
32', Tuimalatu-Brown S. (Try),
34', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
36', Mam E. (Try),
37', Perham H. (Conversion Goal),
40', Wishart T. (Try),
40', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 16)
50', Hunt B. (Try),
52', Perham H. (Missed Conversion),
60', Faalogo S. (Try),
61', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
67', Tuimalatu-Brown S. (Try),
68', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
74', Mam E. (Try),
75', Perham H. (Conversion Goal),
80', Tuimalatu-Brown S. (Try),
80', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 11).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 3.
The current form of both teams is below expectations.
Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 306:596. (average 15.3:29.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 158:324. (average 15.8:32.4).
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Perham H. 
Faalogo S. 
Tuimalatu-Brown S. 
Staggs K. 
Mariner D. 
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