What is the expert prediction for Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, September 04, 2025)

Match Info

NRL - Round 27

Date: 4 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	9HD, Fox League, NRL
France	beIN Sports 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Brisbane Broncos		Melbourne Storm

	1	X	2
	2.55	26	1.55
	2.5	21	1.57
	2.6	22	1.58	Watch
	1.89	15.96	2.07	Watch
	2.3	23	1.6
	2.6	17	1.55
	2.3	23	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (1.83)	21.14 ↑ (21)	1.65 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Broncos
39.1%

Draw
4.4%

Melbourne Storm
56.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

4.4%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

4.4%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Broncos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brisbane Broncos's form might have worsened.

Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne Storm's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Broncos than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brisbane Broncos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne Storm, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 - Brisbane (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 48.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brisbane (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walsh R.	1. Papenhuyzen R.
2. Karapani J.	2. Warbrick W.
3. Staggs K.	3. Anderson G.
4. Mariner D.	4. Meaney N.
5. Arthars J.	5. Coates X.
6. Walters B.	6. Munster C.
7. Hunt B.	7. Hughes J.
8. Jensen C.	9. Garlick B.
9. Paix C.	10. King J.
10. Haas P.	11. Lisati A.
11. Piakura B.	12. Katoa E.
12. Riki J.	13. Loiero T.
13. Carrigan P. (C)	16. Kamikamica T.
Substitutes
14. Smoothy T.	8. Asofa-Solomona N.
15. Hetherington K.	14. Wishart T.
16. Talty B.	15. MacDonald A.
17. Hunt J.	17. Chan J.
Coaches
. Maguire M.	. Bellamy C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 4)
9', Walsh R. (Penalty Goal),
15', Walsh R. (Try),
16', Walsh R. (Missed Conversion),
25', Katoa E. (Try),
27', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
39', Piakura B. (Try),
40', Walsh R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 10)
42', Walsh R. (Try),
44', Walsh R. (Conversion Goal),
60', Warbrick W. (Try),
62', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
65', Walsh R. (Penalty Goal),
69', Walsh R. (Penalty Goal),
72', Meaney N. (Try),
73', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
75', Walsh R. (Penalty Goal),
80', Karapani J. (Try),
80', Walsh R. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Melbourne is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 274:606. (average 13.7:30.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 158:356. (average 14.4:32.4).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Broncos
Australian NRL
30.08.25	North Queensland Cowboys - Brisbane Broncos	30:38 ✺
24.08.25	Newcastle Knights - Brisbane Broncos	12:46 ✺
16.08.25	Brisbane Broncos - Dolphins	38:28 ✺
07.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	22:2 ✺
01.08.25	Brisbane Broncos - South Sydney Rabbitohs	60:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLW
- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
29.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	10:40 ✺
22.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	20:14 ✺
14.08.25	Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm	18:22 OT ✺
07.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	22:2 ✺
31.07.25	Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm	10:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
07.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	22:2
05.09.24	Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm	12:50
04.04.24	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	34:32
08.09.23	Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm	26:0
31.08.23	Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm	22:32
11.05.23	Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos	24:16
19.08.22	Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm	12:60

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