Match Info

NRL - Round 20

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Shark Park (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action


	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks		Newcastle Knights

	1	X	2
	1.38	26	3.1
	1.38	18	3.3
	1.36	20.47	3.43	Watch
	1.36		3.00
	1.36	26	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.67)	18.09 ↓ (24.83)	3.22 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
66.6%

Draw
5%

Newcastle Knights
28.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.8%

3.8%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

3.9%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks's performance.

Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle Knights might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle Knights could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks - Newcastle Knights Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Cronulla-Sutherland will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 46.5 - over (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:18

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kennedy W.	1. Ponga K. (C)
2. Katoa S.	2. Young D.
4. Iro K.	3. Gagai D.
5. Mulitalo R.	4. Best B.
6. Trindall B.	5. Marzhew G.
7. Hynes N.	6. Sharpe F.
8. Fonua-Blake A.	7. Brown D.
9. Brailey B. (C)	8. Frizell T.
10. Hazelton T.	9. Crossland P.
11. Nikora B.	10. Mooney T.
12. Wilton T.	11. Lucas D.
13. McInnes C.	12. Manuleleua F.
19. Hiroti M.	13. Croker M.
Substitutes
14. Puru H.	14. Smith S.
16. Burns B.	15. Crouch L.
17. Kaufusi O.	16. Cant T.
18. Tapuha T. H.	17. Jones B.
20. Stonestreet S.	18. Hunt F.
22. Berrell J.	19. Graham H.
Coaches
. Fitzgibbon C.	. Holbrook J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 12)
9', Ponga K. (Try),
11', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
15', Kennedy W. (Try),
16', Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
20', Marzhew G. (Try),
22', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
27', Katoa S. (Try),
29', Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
36', Hynes N. (Penalty Goal),
39', Lucas D. (Try),
40', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (6 - 6)
49', Mulitalo R. (Try),
51', Hynes N. (Conversion Goal),
79', Marzhew G. (Try),
80', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cronulla-Sutherland won 3.

Cronulla-Sutherland is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Newcastle's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Cronulla-Sutherland has had a series of away games.

In this match, Cronulla-Sutherland is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cronulla-Sutherland won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 540:346. (average 27:17.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cronulla-Sutherland won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 210:90. (average 26.3:11.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Australian NRL
11.07.26	Dolphins - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	0:66 ✺
04.07.26	Brisbane Broncos - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	16:28 ✺
21.06.26	Sydney Roosters - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	27:8 ✺
13.06.26	New Zealand Warriors - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	8:10 ✺
07.06.26	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - St. George Illawarra Dragons	34:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWLWW
- Newcastle Knights
Australian NRL
12.07.26	South Sydney Rabbitohs - Newcastle Knights	26:24 ✺
05.07.26	Newcastle Knights - Dolphins	13:12 ✺
28.06.26	Newcastle Knights - Wests Tigers	12:6 ✺
19.06.26	Newcastle Knights - St. George Illawarra Dragons	22:20 ✺
05.06.26	Melbourne Storm - Newcastle Knights	32:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
31.08.25	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Newcastle Knights	40:16
20.04.25	Newcastle Knights - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	14:34
18.08.24	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Newcastle Knights	19:18 OT
16.02.24	Newcastle Knights - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	44:18
27.08.23	Newcastle Knights - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	32:6
20.05.23	Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Newcastle Knights	26:6
10.02.23	Newcastle Knights - Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	16:28

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - Newcastle Knights: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide