Match Info

NRL - Round 13

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Atkins G. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Action
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2


	Melbourne Storm		Sydney Roosters

	1	X	2
	2.15	21	1.75
	2.25	15	1.8
	2.16	22.06	1.77	Watch
	2.1	21	1.7
	2.2	19	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.98)	19.61 ↓ (21.25)	1.75 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Storm
42.6%

Draw
4.7%

Sydney Roosters
52.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.7%

4.3%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

4.1%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Sydney Roosters has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Roosters than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Melbourne will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Sydney will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:27

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Faalogo S.	1. Tedesco J.
2. Warbrick W.	2. Smith B.
3. Howarth J.	3. Savala H.
4. Meaney N.	4. Toia R.
5. Moses L.	5. Ramsey C.
6. Munster C.	6. Cherry-Evans D.
7. Hughes J.	7. Walker S.
8. Utoikamanu S.	8. Whyte N.
10. King J.	9. Robson R.
12. Lisati A.	11. Crichton A.
13. Loiero T.	12. Wong S.
14. Toelau T.	13. Radley V.
15. Clarke C.	15. Leniu S.
Substitutes
9. Grant H.	10. Collins L.
11. MacDonald A.	14. Watson C.
17. Pahulu J.	16. Butcher N.
18. Chan J.	17. Foketi S.
19. Waitere M.	18. Foley R.
20. Hetherington J.	19. Butcher E.
Coaches
. Bellamy C.	. Robinson T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 4)
26', Grant H. (Try),
28', Faalogo S. (Conversion Goal),
35', Smith B. (Try),
37', Walker S. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (12 - 0)
53', Warbrick W. (Try),
54', Faalogo S. (Missed Conversion),
60', Faalogo S. (Penalty Goal),
63', Moses L. (Try),
64', Faalogo S. (Missed Conversion),
80', Faalogo S. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 4.

Melbourne has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sydney is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sydney has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 446:324. (average 22.3:16.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 233:187. (average 23.3:18.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Storm
Australian NRL
22.05.26	Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - Melbourne Storm	30:20 ✺
16.05.26	Parramatta Eels - Melbourne Storm	8:34 ✺
10.05.26	Melbourne Storm - Wests Tigers	44:16 ✺
01.05.26	Dolphins - Melbourne Storm	28:10 ✺
25.04.26	Melbourne Storm - South Sydney Rabbitohs	6:48 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWLL
- Sydney Roosters
Australian NRL
16.05.26	Sydney Roosters - North Queensland Cowboys	12:18 ✺
08.05.26	Sydney Roosters - Gold Coast Titans	28:12 ✺
02.05.26	Sydney Roosters - Brisbane Broncos	38:24 ✺
25.04.26	St. George Illawarra Dragons - Sydney Roosters	16:62 ✺
19.04.26	Sydney Roosters - Newcastle Knights	38:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NRL
29.08.25	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	10:40
24.07.25	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	30:34
27.09.24	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	48:18
20.07.24	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	24:8
18.04.24	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	12:18
15.09.23	Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters	18:13
15.07.23	Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm	16:30

Melbourne Storm - Sydney Roosters: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide