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Current Win Probability
Newcastle Knights 43.1%
Draw 4.5%
South Sydney Rabbitohs 52.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
33.5%
3.7%
62.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.7%
3.9%
59%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newcastle Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle Knights's performance.
South Sydney Rabbitohs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and South Sydney Rabbitohs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (-7.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle Knights that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Sydney Rabbitohs than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that South Sydney Rabbitohs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Newcastle Knights - South Sydney Rabbitohs Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:28
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ponga K.
1. Dufty M.
2. Young D.
2. Johnston A.
3. Gagai D.
3. Mitchell L.
4. Best B.
4. Wighton J.
5. Marzhew G.
5. Graham C.
6. Sharpe F.
6. Walker C.
7. Brown D.
7. Humphreys J.
8. Saifiti J.
8. Tatola T.
9. Crossland P.
9. Garlick B.
10. Mooney T.
10. Keppie S.
11. Lucas D.
11. Koloamatangi K.
12. McEwen J.
12. Duncan T.
13. Croker M.
13. Murray C.
Substitutes
14. Smith S.
14. Mamouzelos P.
15. Frizell T.
15. Hubner L.
16. Saulo P.
16. Aitken E.
17. Hunt F.
18. Sullivan J.
19. Manuleleua F.
19. Graham-Taufa M.
20. Hopwood C.
20. Elliott A.
Coaches
. Holbrook J.
. Bennett W.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (28 - 10)
6', Mooney T. (Try),
7', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
10', Lucas D. (Try),
12', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
21', Marzhew G. (Try),
23', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
25', Marzhew G. (Try),
26', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
27', Keppie S. (Try),
28', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
30', Lucas D. (Try),
31', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
32', Johnston A. (Try),
33', Mitchell L. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (14 - 28)
43', Walker C. (Try),
45', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
48', Ponga K. (Penalty Goal),
55', Duncan T. (Try),
56', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
58', Johnston A. (Try),
63', Marzhew G. (Try),
64', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
66', Walker C. (Try),
67', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
71', Mitchell L. (Try),
73', Mitchell L. (Conversion Goal),
74', Mooney T. (Try),
76', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.
Newcastle has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
South Sydney is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, South Sydney has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 301:491. (average 17.7:28.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 111:162. (average 18.5:27).
Australia
New-zealand
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Ponga K. 
Young D. 
Johnston A. 
Brown D. 
Saifiti J. 
Tatola T. 
Mamouzelos P. 
Aitken E. 
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