The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Sydney Roosters 66.6%
Draw 4.4%
Newcastle Knights 29%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
63.8%
4.3%
31.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47.1%
3.2%
43.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sydney Roosters has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
Newcastle Knights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Roosters than the current prediction. (-19.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sydney Roosters that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (+14.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle Knights could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Sydney Roosters - Newcastle Knights Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:18
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Tedesco J. (C)
1. Ponga K. (C)
2. Tupou D.
2. Young D.
3. Smith B.
3. Gagai D.
4. Toia R.
4. Best B.
5. Nawaqanitawase M.
5. Marzhew G.
6. Cherry-Evans D.
6. Sharpe F.
7. Walker S.
7. Smith S.
8. Whyte N.
8. Frizell T.
9. Robson R.
10. Hopwood C.
10. Collins L.
11. McEwen J.
11. Foketi S.
12. Manuleleua F.
12. Wong S.
13. Croker M.
13. Radley V.
19. Cant T.
Substitutes
15. Crichton A.
14. Graham H.
16. Butcher N.
15. Crouch L.
17. Leniu S.
16. Saulo P.
18. Savala H.
17. Lucas D.
19. Ramsey C.
18. Hunt F.
20. Ioelu B.
21. Hagan D.
Coaches
. Robinson T.
. Holbrook J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (6 - 12)
15', Manuleleua F. (Try),
17', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
29', Ponga K. (Try),
30', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
35', Nawaqanitawase M. (Try),
37', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (13 - 6)
47', Smith B. (Try),
49', Walker S. (Conversion Goal),
54', Walker S. (Penalty Goal),
54', Nawaqanitawase M. (Try),
62', Walker S. (Missed Conversion),
69', Cherry-Evans D. (Drop Goal),
76', Marzhew G. (Try),
77', Smith S. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sydney won 4.
The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.
Sydney could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Newcastle has had a run of games away from home.
In this matchup, Sydney is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sydney has recorded 16 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 535:314 (averaging 26.8:15.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Sydney against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 276:134 goals (averaging 30.7:14.9 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Newcastle Knights - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 31.91%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
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Tedesco J. (C) 
Tupou D. 
Young D. 
Wong S. 
Leniu S. 
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