Match Info

Top 14 - Round 17

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 2


	Aviron Bayonnais		Racing Métro

	1	X	2
	1.36	23	3.2
	1.35	23	3.25
	1.37	23.13	3.43	Watch
	1.36	23	3.2
	1.34	18	3.44
	1.38	21	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↑ (1.34)	21.86 ↑ (18.89)	3.3 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
67.8%

Draw
4.2%

Racing Métro
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.2%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

4.1%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Racing Métro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aviron Bayonnais than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aviron Bayonnais that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing Métro than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Bayonne will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Racing Métro will win (votes: 11 - 91.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Racing Métro: 76.1% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Racing Métro will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calles I.	1. Kharaishvili G.
2. Bosch F.	2. Escobar D.
3. Tagi L.	3. Bamba D.
4. Iturria A. (C)	4. Lainault T.
5. Moon A.	5. Rowlands W.
6. Fischer A.	6. Baudonne M.
7. Chouzenoux B.	7. Sanconnie F.
8. Bruni R.	8. Hughes N.
9. Germain B.	9. Carbonneau L.
10. Segonds J.	10. Gibert A.
11. Carreras M.	11. Spring M. (C)
12. Martocq G.	12. Manu J.
13. Maqala S.	13. Habosi V.
14. Erbinartegaray A.	14. Hulleu W.
15. Orabe Y.	15. James S.
Substitutes
16. Giudicelli V.	16. Basse Y.
17. Cormenier S.	17. Gogichashvili G.
18. Paulos L.	18. Tagitagivalu L.
19. Johnson E.	19. Taofifenua R.
20. Jantjies H.	20. Manyarara S.
21. Spring T.	21. Seunes U.
22. Tiberghien C.	22. Fickou G.
23. Tatafu T.	23. Tupou D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 18)
12', Carbonneau L. (Penalty Goal),
15', Hulleu W. (Try),
15', Carbonneau L. (Conversion Goal),
22', Orabe Y. (Try),
28', Gibert A. (Penalty Goal),
31', Fischer A. (Try),
31', Germain B. (Conversion Goal),
33', Baudonne M. (Try),
35', Hughes N. 🟨,
37', Fischer A. (Try),
37', Germain B. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 23)
43', Gibert A. (Penalty Goal),
44', Martocq G. 🟨,
45', Spring T. (Try),
46', Spring T. (Conversion Goal),
54', Tagitagivalu L. (Try),
54', Seunes U. (Conversion Goal),
58', Tatafu T. (Try),
59', Germain B. (Conversion Goal),
61', Baudonne M. (Try),
61', Seunes U. (Conversion Goal),
67', Seunes U. (Penalty Goal),
72', Germain B. (Penalty Goal),
77', Manyarara S. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 11 and 9)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 3.

Bayonne has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Racing Métro's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Bayonne is a strong favorite.

We predict that Racing Métro will win today's game, with odds of 3.47.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 350:481. (average 19.4:26.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayonne won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 156:148. (average 19.5:18.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Aviron Bayonnais	5	4	0	1	156:169	17
9	Racing 92	5	2	0	3	128:167	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
31.01.26	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	31:10 ✺
24.01.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Castres	10:13 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Leinster	13:22 ✺
10.01.26	Leicester Tigers - Aviron Bayonnais	57:14 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	62:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Racing Métro 92
French Top 14
31.01.26	Racing Métro - Perpignan	37:31 ✺
24.01.26	Racing Métro - Lyon	35:34 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.26	Racing Métro - Cheetahs	31:28 ✺
10.01.26	Cardiff Rugby - Racing Métro	32:13 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Racing Métro	62:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
22.11.25	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	47:27
10.05.25	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	24:24
19.10.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	32:15
11.05.24	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	28:40
30.12.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	27:23
06.05.23	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	55:14
10.09.22	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	31:25

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