Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Welford Road (Leicester)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV5
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Leicester Tigers		Aviron Bayonnais

	1	X	2
	1	51	21
	1.01	50	13
	1	29	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1 ↓ (1.01)	43.33 ↓ (43.33)	17 ↑ (16)

The most likely Over/Under: 63.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-30)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leicester Tigers
92.4%

Draw
2.1%

Aviron Bayonnais
5.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

92.1%

2.1%

5.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leicester Tigers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Leicester Tigers - Aviron Bayonnais Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayonne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -33.5 - Leicester Tigers (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leicester Tigers (votes: 1 - 50%). Bayonne (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 47:17

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Smith N.	1. Calles I.
2. Clare C.	2. Martin L.
3. Heyes J.	3. Cotet P.
4. Henderson C.	4. Iturria A. (C)
5. Chessum O. (C)	5. Garcia A.
6. Thompson J.	6. Leota R.
7. Reffell T.	7. Marchesin R.
8. Cracknell O.	8. Ariceta M.
9. van Poortvliet J.	9. Tilloles B.
10. Searle B.	10. Boyle-Tiatia P.
11. Hamer-Webb G.	11. Hannoun V.
12. Bailey O.	12. Tuilagi M.
13. Wand W.	13. Martocq G.
14. Radwan A.	14. Lapegue Lafaye G.
15. Steward F.	15. Spring T.
Substitutes
16. Blamire J.	16. Bosch F.
17. Haffar T.	17. Tumania E.
18. Hurd W.	18. Tagi L.
19. Moro J.	19. Johnson E.
20. Ilione E.	20. Traversier N.
21. Whiteley T.	21. Jantjies H.
22. Woodward J.	22. Thompson J. B.
23. Pearson G.	23. Rasal B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 0)
6', Radwan A. (Try),
13', Radwan A. (Try),
31', Reffell T. (Try),
32', Searle B. (Conversion Goal),
39', Henderson C. (Try),
40', Searle B. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (33 - 14)
43', Spring T. (Try),
44', Spring T. (Conversion Goal),
48', Searle B. (Try),
49', Searle B. (Conversion Goal),
53', Searle B. (Try),
54', Searle B. (Conversion Goal),
57', Tilloles B. 🟨,
57', Searle B. (Try),
60', Chessum O. (Try),
61', Searle B. (Conversion Goal),
66', Tumania E. (Try),
67', Boyle-Tiatia P. (Conversion Goal),
79', Ilione E. (Try),
80', Woodward J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Leicester Tigers has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bayonne's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Leicester Tigers is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leicester Tigers won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:20.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leicester Tigers
English Premiership Rugby
04.01.26	Leicester Tigers - Saracens	36:28 ✺
28.12.25	Exeter Chiefs - Leicester Tigers	24:10 ✺
19.12.25	Leicester Tigers - Gloucester	45:14 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.12.25	Leicester Tigers - Leinster	15:23 ✺
06.12.25	La Rochelle - Leicester Tigers	39:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLWLL
- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	62:22 ✺
27.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:34 ✺
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Harlequins - Aviron Bayonnais	68:14 ✺
05.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stormers	17:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
19.12.20	Aviron Bayonnais - Leicester Tigers	20:28

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