Match Info

Top 14 - Round 14

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: GGL Stadium (Montpellier)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 4
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Montpellier		Aviron Bayonnais

	1	X	2
	1.14	34	5.5
	1.16	30	5
	1.17	30.32	5.69	Watch
	1.14	29	5.5
	1.11	26	6
	1.14	36	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↓ (1.21)	30.89 ↑ (26.24)	5.62 ↑ (5.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
80.6%

Draw
3%

Aviron Bayonnais
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

77.7%

3.6%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +6.5, 1st Half - Bayonne (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +14.5 - Bayonne (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayonne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Forletta E.	1. Cormenier S.
2. Tolofua C.	2. Martin L.
3. Hounkpatin W.	3. Cotet P.
4. Verhaeghe F.	4. Johnson E.
5. Duguid T.	5. Paulos L.
6. Nouchi L. (C)	6. Fischer A.
7. Becognee A.	7. Heguy B.
8. Vunipola V.	8. Leota R.
9. Price A.	9. Jantjies H.
10. Miotti H.	10. Segonds J. (C)
11. Taofifenua D.	11. Carreras M.
12. Piccardo J.	12. Tuilagi M.
13. Vincent A.	13. Maqala S.
14. Ngandebe G.	14. Spring T.
15. Banks T.	15. Tiberghien C.
Substitutes
16. Riccitelli R.	16. Giudicelli V.
17. Erdocio B.	17. Calles I.
18. Tauleigne M.	18. Garcia A.
19. Chalureau B.	19. Iturria A.
20. Masibaka A.	20. Ariceta M.
21. Coly L.	21. Tilloles B.
22. Darmon T.	22. Martocq G.
23. Japaridze L.	23. Tagi L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (34 - 10)
3', Vincent A. (Try),
3', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
9', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
17', Banks T. (Try),
17', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
21', Tolofua C. (Try),
29', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
33', Tolofua C. (Try),
38', Spring T. (Try),
39', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
40', Vincent A. (Try),
40', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 12)
47', Hounkpatin W. 🟨,
48', Spring T. (Try),
55', Cotet P. 🟨,
57', Tolofua C. (Try),
57', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
66', Miotti H. (Try),
66', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
72', Masibaka A. (Try),
72', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
76', Iturria A. (Try),
77', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
80', Tauleigne M. (Try),
80+1', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2.

Montpellier is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayonne's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Montpellier is the obvious favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 549:435. (average 28.9:22.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 325:182. (average 36.1:20.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Aviron Bayonnais	5	4	0	1	156:169	17
5	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	141:92	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
28.12.25	Section Paloise - Montpellier	35:33 ✺
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.12.25	Montpellier - Zebre	31:7 ✺
06.12.25	Black Lion - Montpellier	13:24 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles	28:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWW
- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
27.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:34 ✺
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Harlequins - Aviron Bayonnais	68:14 ✺
05.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stormers	17:26 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Lyon	22:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
13.09.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Montpellier	26:23
04.01.25	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	42:10
28.09.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Montpellier	28:27
24.02.24	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	28:23
02.12.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Montpellier	34:19
22.04.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Montpellier	33:30
26.11.22	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	35:14

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