Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, France 2
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Aviron Bayonnais		Leinster

	1	X	2
	6.5	34	1.11
	5.8	30	1.13
	6.08	29.2	1.14	Watch
	6	29	1.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.1 ↓ (11.67)	30.55 ↓ (45.67)	1.13 ↑ (1.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
15.1%

Draw
3%

Leinster
81.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

7.9%

90.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aviron Bayonnais's performance.

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leinster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Aviron Bayonnais - Leinster Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Bayonne will win (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Leinster will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayonne: 77.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +23 - Bayonne (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +23.5 - Bayonne (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aviron Bayonnais will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayonne (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 19:34

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calles I.	1. Boyle J.
2. Martin L.	2. Kelleher R.
3. Tagi L.	3. Furlong T.
4. Johnson E.	4. Snyman R.
5. Paulos L.	5. Ryan J.
6. Fischer A.	6. Deegan M.
7. Iturria A. (C)	7. van der Flier J.
8. Lomidze N.	8. Sweetman-Doris C. (C)
9. Jantjies H.	9. Gibson-Park J.
10. Segonds J.	10. Byrne H.
11. Orabe Y.	11. Kenny J.
12. Tuilagi M.	12. Henshaw R.
13. Maqala S.	13. Ringrose G.
14. Spring T.	14. O'Brien T.
15. Tiberghien C.	15. O'Brien J.
Substitutes
16. Bosch F.	16. Sheehan D.
17. Tumania E.	17. Cahir J.
18. Setiano E.	18. Clarkson T.
19. Garcia A.	19. McCarthy J.
20. Heguy B.	20. Penny S.
21. Ariceta M.	21. McGrath L.
22. Martocq G.	22. Prendergast S.
23. Hannoun V.	23. Ioane R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 3)
15', Maqala S. (Try),
16', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
21', Byrne H. (Penalty Goal),
24', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (3 - 19)
50', Jantjies H. 🟨,
56', Sheehan D. (Try),
57', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
60', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
74', Prendergast S. (Try),
75', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
80', Deegan M. (Try),

Preview

Bayonne has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leinster is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Bayonne has had a series of away games.

In this match, Leinster is the undisputed favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
European Rugby Champions Cup
10.01.26	Leicester Tigers - Aviron Bayonnais	57:14 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	62:22 ✺
27.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:34 ✺
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Harlequins - Aviron Bayonnais	68:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL
- Leinster Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
10.01.26	Leinster - La Rochelle	25:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17 ✺
27.12.25	Munster - Leinster	8:13 ✺
19.12.25	Leinster - Ulster	24:20 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.12.25	Leicester Tigers - Leinster	15:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWW

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