Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 16

Date: 30 May 2025, Friday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	Sky Sport 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Brumbies		Crusaders

	1	X	2
	1.91	21	1.95
	1.73	21	2.1
	1.85	23	2.06
	1.88	23	1.98	Watch
	1.83	21	2
	1.83	18	2
	1.85	23	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.03)	21.43 ↑ (21.2)	2.02 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Brumbies
50.1%

Draw
4.3%

Crusaders
45.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.5%

4.4%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

4.2%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brumbies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Crusaders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brumbies than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brumbies that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crusaders could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Brumbies - Crusaders Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Crusaders will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brumbies (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:28

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Slipper J.	1. Bower G.
2. Pollard B.	2. Taylor C. (C)
3. Fotuaika F.	3. Williams T.
4. Frost N.	4. Barrett S.
5. Hooper T.	5. Shalfoon A.
6. Valetini R.	6. Blackadder E.
7. Scott R.	7. Christie T.
8. Tualima T.	8. Lio-Willie C.
9. Lonergan R.	9. Hotham N.
10. Lolesio N.	10. Reihana R.
11. Toole C.	11. Reece S.
12. Feliuai D.	12. McLeod D.
13. Ikitau L.	13. Aumua L.
14. Muirhead A.	14. Fihaki C.
15. Wright T.	15. McNicholl J.
Substitutes
16. Lonergan L.	16. Bell G.
17. Ieli L.	17. Ponini L.
18. Van Nek R.	18. Calder S.
19. Shaw L.	19. Cahill T.
20. Reimer L.	20. Kellow C.
21. Goddard H.	21. Preston K.
22. Meredith D.	22. O'Connor J.
23. Sapsford O.	23. Ennor B.
Coaches
. Larkham S.	. Penney R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 25)
1', Fotuaika F. (Try),
2', Lolesio N. (Conversion Goal),
6', Lio-Willie C. (Try),
7', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
10', Reihana R. (Penalty Goal),
12', Blackadder E. (Try),
14', Reihana R. (Missed Conversion),
16', Ikitau L. (Try),
17', Lolesio N. (Conversion Goal),
25', Reihana R. (Try),
26', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
37', Reece S. (Drop Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 8)
41', Blackadder E. ↓, Kellow C. ↑,
44', Aumua L. ↓, Ennor B. ↑,
46', Reihana R. (Penalty Goal),
46', Fotuaika F. ↓, Van Nek R. ↑,
49', Slipper J. (Try),
49', Lolesio N. (Conversion Goal),
50', Scott R. ↓, Reimer L. ↑,
55', Muirhead A. (Try),
56', Lolesio N. (Conversion Goal),
56', Pollard B. ↓, Lonergan L. ↑,
57', Taylor C. ↓, Bell G. ↑,
57', Shalfoon A. ↓, Cahill T. ↑,
57', Hotham N. ↓, Preston K. ↑,
59', Feliuai D. ↓, Sapsford O. ↑,
61', Slipper J. ↓, Ieli L. ↑,
63', McLeod D. ↓, O'Connor J. ↑,
69', Tualima T. ↓, Shaw L. ↑,
69', Ikitau L. ↓, Meredith D. ↑,
70', Williams T. ↓, Calder S. ↑,
72', Lolesio N. (Penalty Goal),
76', Bell G. (Try),
77', Reihana R. (Missed Conversion),
77', Lonergan R. ↓, Goddard H. ↑,
79', Bower G. ↓, Ponini L. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brumbies won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Brumbies may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Brumbies won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 214:348. (average 19.5:31.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Brumbies won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 126:189. (average 21:31.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brumbies Rugby
Super Rugby
17.05.25	Brumbies - Reds	24:14 ✺
10.05.25	Western Force - Brumbies	14:33 ✺
03.05.25	Brumbies - Waratahs	40:17 ✺
26.04.25	Brumbies - Hurricanes	29:35 ✺
19.04.25	Moana Pasifika - Brumbies	0:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWLW
- Crusaders Rugby
Super Rugby
23.05.25	Crusaders - Highlanders	15:12 ✺
16.05.25	Waratahs - Crusaders	33:48 ✺
10.05.25	Crusaders - Chiefs	19:35 ✺
26.04.25	Highlanders - Crusaders	10:43 ✺
18.04.25	Crusaders - Blues	25:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
18.05.24	Brumbies - Crusaders	31:24
24.03.23	Crusaders - Brumbies	35:17
13.05.22	Brumbies - Crusaders	26:37
15.05.21	Crusaders - Brumbies	31:24
06.04.19	Crusaders - Brumbies	36:14
28.04.18	Brumbies - Crusaders	8:21
25.02.17	Crusaders - Brumbies	17:13

Brumbies - Crusaders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide