Match Info
Super Rugby - Round 1Date: 14 February 2026, SaturdayLocation: HBF Park (Perth)Referee: Way J. (Aus)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Australia | Stan Sport |
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Western Force |
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Brumbies |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.91 |
21 |
1.91 |
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 |
2.09 |
21 |
1.78 |
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 |
1.83 |
21.82 |
2.04 |
Watch |
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2 |
23 |
1.83 |
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 |
2 |
26 |
1.83 |
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2 |
21 |
1.9 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.97 ↓ (2.71) |
22.3 ↑ (20.34) |
1.88 ↑ (1.51) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 57.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)
- The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Western Force 46.8% | Draw 4.1% | Brumbies 49.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Western Force has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Western Force's performance.Brumbies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brumbies might be facing challenges that affect their performance. bannerPredictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Western Force will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Brumbies will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brumbies: 23.1% – 88.1%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Western Force (votes: 1 - 50%). Brumbies (votes: 1 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +3.5 - Western Force (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +2.5 - Western Force (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Western Force (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - Western Force (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Western Force (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Brumbies (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:31 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. Robertson T.
| 1. Slipper J.
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2. Paenga-Amosa B.
| 2. Pollard B.
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3. Johnson-Holmes H.
| 3. Van Nek R.
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4. Williams J. (C)
| 4. Shaw L.
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5. Molina F.
| 5. Neville C.
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6. Ekuasi V.
| 6. Valetini R.
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7. Tizzano C.
| 7. Scott R.
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8. Champion de Crespigny R.
| 8. Cale C.
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9. Hastie N.
| 9. Lonergan R. (C)
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10. Donaldson B.
| 10. Meredith D.
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11. Kuenzle B.
| 11. Toole C.
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12. Stewart H.
| 12. Feliuai D.
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13. Bridge G.
| 13. Pritchard K.
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14. Palu D.
| 14. Sapsford O.
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15. Grealy M.
| 15. Muirhead A.
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| Substitutes |
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16. Oviedo L.
| 16. Bowron L.
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17. Faagase S.
| 17. Schoupp B.
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18. Epenisa M.
| 18. Alatini T.
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19. Swain D.
| 19. MacPherson T.
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20. Harris W.
| 20. Reimer L.
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21. Robertson H.
| 21. Thorn K.
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22. Burey M.
| 22. Edmed T.
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23. Beale K.
| 23. Creighton H.
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| Coaches |
|---|
. Cron S.
| . Larkham S.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (10 - 14)
- 6', Ekuasi V. (Try),
- 7', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
- 12', Shaw L. ↓, MacPherson T. ↑,
- 18', MacPherson T. ↓, Shaw L. ↑,
- 21', Donaldson B. (Penalty Goal),
- 22', Cale C. (Try),
- 23', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 33', Champion de Crespigny R. ↓, Harris W. ↑,
- 34', Meredith D. (Try),
- 35', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (14 - 42)
- 44', Van Nek R. (Try),
- 45', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 49', Lonergan R. (Try),
- 50', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 51', Slipper J. ↓, Schoupp B. ↑,
- 51', Robertson T. ↓, Faagase S. ↑,
- 51', Pollard B. ↓, Bowron L. ↑,
- 51', Johnson-Holmes H. ↓, Epenisa M. ↑,
- 51', Stewart H. ↓, Beale K. ↑,
- 54', Molina F. (Try),
- 55', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
- 55', Molina F. ↓, Swain D. ↑,
- 55', Hastie N. ↓, Robertson H. ↑,
- 60', Meredith D. (Try),
- 61', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 61', Van Nek R. ↓, Alatini T. ↑,
- 62', Scott R. ↓, Reimer L. ↑,
- 62', Neville C. ↓, MacPherson T. ↑,
- 62', Meredith D. ↓, Edmed T. ↑,
- 65', Paenga-Amosa B. ↓, Oviedo L. ↑,
- 66', Muirhead A. ↓, Creighton H. ↑,
- 66', Lonergan R. ↓, Thorn K. ↑,
- 67', Toole C. (Try),
- 68', Edmed T. (Conversion Goal),
- 71', Palu D. ↓, Burey M. ↑,
- 78', Tizzano C. (Try),
- 78', Cale C. (Try),
- 78', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
- 79', Edmed T. (Conversion Goal),
- 80', Alatini T. 🟨,
- 80+2', Sapsford O. (Try),
- 80+2', Edmed T. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Western Force won 2. In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Western Force won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 401:602. (average 20.1:30.1).Including home matches between the teams, Western Force won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 233:321. (average 21.2:29.2).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Super Rugby AUS | | | 20.09.25 | Western Force - Brumbies | 46:35 | | Super Rugby | | | 10.05.25 | Western Force - Brumbies | 14:33 | | 22.02.25 | Brumbies - Western Force | 42:45 | | 01.06.24 | Western Force - Brumbies | 19:24 | | 08.03.24 | Brumbies - Western Force | 22:19 | | 20.05.23 | Western Force - Brumbies | 34:19 | | 25.03.22 | Western Force - Brumbies | 38:39 |
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Upcoming Matches
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✺ - difficult match;