Match Info
Super Rugby - Play Offs - FinalDate: 21 June 2025, SaturdayLocation: Apollo Projects Stadium (Christchurch)Referee: Gardner A. (Aus)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Asia | Premier Sports Rugby Asia |
Australia | Stan Sport |
Brazil | ESPN 2 |
France | CANAL+ Sport |
New-zealand | Sky Sport 1 |
Peru | Movistar Deportes |
Spain | M+ Deportes |
United-kingdom | Sky Sports Action |
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Crusaders |
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Chiefs |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
2.05 |
19 |
1.83 |
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 |
2 |
21 |
1.8 |
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 |
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Watch |
 |
2.05 |
23 |
1.8 |
|
 |
2.1 |
20 |
1.73 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.05 ↑ (1.96) |
20.75 ↑ (19) |
1.79 ↓ (1.89) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 47.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)
- The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Crusaders 44.6% | Draw 4.4% | Chiefs 51% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Crusaders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (+6.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Crusaders, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chiefs than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chiefs, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors. bannerPredictions
Users Predictions:
1 users predict this event. Crusaders will win (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 50, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:25 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1. Williams T.
| 1. Norris O.
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2. Taylor C.
| 2. Taukei'aho S.
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3. Newell F.
| 3. Dyer G.
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4. Barrett S.
| 4. Ah Kuoi N.
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5. Shalfoon A.
| 5. Vaa'i T.
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6. Blackadder E.
| 6. Finau S.
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7. Christie T.
| 7. Jacobson L.
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8. Lio-Willie C.
| 8. Sititi W.
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9. Hotham N.
| 9. Ratima C.
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10. Reihana R.
| 10. McKenzie D.
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11. Springer M.
| 11. Carter L.
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12. Havili D.
| 12. Tupaea Q.
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13. Ennor B.
| 13. Rona D.
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14. Reece S.
| 14. Narawa E.
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15. Jordan W.
| 15. Stevenson S.
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| Substitutes |
|---|
16. Bell G.
| 16. McAlister B.
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17. Bower G.
| 17. Ross A.
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18. Calder S.
| 18. O’Neill R.
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19. Hannah J.
| 19. Tupou J.
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20. Grace C.
| 20. Boshier K.
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21. Preston K.
| 21. Roe X.
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22. O'Connor J.
| 22. Jacomb J.
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23. McLeod D.
| 23. Nanai-Seturo E.
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| Coaches |
|---|
. Penney R.
| . McMillan C.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (13 - 12)
- 11', Havili D. 🟨,
- 12', Dyer G. (Try),
- 13', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 21', Havili D. ↓, McLeod D. ↑,
- 24', McLeod D. ↓, Havili D. ↑,
- 25', Taylor C. (Try),
- 26', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
- 28', Reihana R. (Penalty Goal),
- 34', Reihana R. (Penalty Goal),
- 37', Stevenson S. (Try),
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 44', Jacobson L. ↓, Boshier K. ↑,
- 51', Norris O. ↓, Ross A. ↑,
- 51', Taukei'aho S. ↓, McAlister B. ↑,
- 51', Dyer G. ↓, O’Neill R. ↑,
- 55', Christie T. ↓, Grace C. ↑,
- 55', Williams T. ↓, Bower G. ↑,
- 58', Boshier K. ↓, Jacobson L. ↑,
- 61', Ratima C. ↓, Roe X. ↑,
- 64', Taylor C. ↓, Bell G. ↑,
- 64', Shalfoon A. ↓, Hannah J. ↑,
- 64', Ah Kuoi N. ↓, Tupou J. ↑,
- 66', Narawa E. ↓, Nanai-Seturo E. ↑,
- 69', Stevenson S. ↓, Jacomb J. ↑,
- 70', Sititi W. ↓, Boshier K. ↑,
- 71', Ennor B. ↓, McLeod D. ↑,
- 73', Reihana R. (Penalty Goal),
- 73', Hotham N. ↓, Preston K. ↑,
- 80', Reihana R. ↓, O'Connor J. ↑,
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 2.Crusaders has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).Chiefs is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Crusaders may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 559:502. (average 28:25.1).Including home matches between the teams, Crusaders won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 290:217. (average 29:21.7).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Super Rugby | | | 10.05.25 | Crusaders - Chiefs | 19:35 | | 21.02.25 | Chiefs - Crusaders | 49:24 | | 29.03.24 | Crusaders - Chiefs | 37:26 | | 23.02.24 | Chiefs - Crusaders | 33:29 | | 24.06.23 | Chiefs - Crusaders | 20:25 | | 29.04.23 | Chiefs - Crusaders | 34:24 | | 24.02.23 | Crusaders - Chiefs | 10:31 |
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Upcoming Matches
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✺ - difficult match;