The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Crusaders 53%
Draw 4.3%
Chiefs 42.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.5%
3.7%
54.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40%
3.6%
56.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Crusaders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crusaders's performance.
Chiefs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chiefs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (-13%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crusaders that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chiefs than the current prediction. (+14.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chiefs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
0%
33.3%
Crusaders - Chiefs Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Crusaders will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Chiefs will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 57.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:28
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Bower G.
1. Norris O.
2. Taylor C.
2. Taukei'aho S.
3. Newell F.
3. Ahio S.
4. Shalfoon A.
4. Lord J.
5. Hannah J.
5. Vaa'i T.
6. Blackadder E.
6. Finau S.
7. Faingaanuku L.
7. Jacobson L. (C)
8. Lio-Willie C.
8. Sititi W.
9. Hotham N.
9. Ratima C.
10. Reihana R.
10. Jacomb J.
11. Reece S.
11. Taumoefolau K.
12. Havili D. (C)
12. Tupaea Q.
13. McLeod D.
13. Brown K.
14. Fihaki C.
14. Coombes-Fabling L.
15. Jordan W.
15. Hutchinson I.
Substitutes
16. Letiu M.
16. McAlister B.
17. Sexton J.
17. Proffit J.
18. Calder S.
18. Dyer G.
19. Jack L.
19. Ah Kuoi N.
20. Gardiner D.
20. Parker S.
21. Preston K.
21. Roe X.
22. Kemara T.
22. Cook-Savage T.
23. McNicholl J.
23. Rona D.
Coaches
. Penney R.
. McMillan C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (17 - 19)
4', Taumoefolau K. (Try),
5', Jacomb J. (Missed Conversion),
13', Coombes-Fabling L. ↓, Cook-Savage T. ↑,
18', Faingaanuku L. (Try),
19', Reihana R. (Missed Conversion),
23', Taukei'aho S. (Try),
24', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
24', Cook-Savage T. ↓, Coombes-Fabling L. ↑,
28', Hannah J. (Try),
29', Reihana R. (Missed Conversion),
32', Lord J. (Try),
34', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
36', Lio-Willie C. (Try),
37', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
37', Norris O. ↓, Proffit J. ↑,
2nd Half (19 - 13)
43', Jacomb J. (Penalty Goal),
44', Ahio S. ↓, Dyer G. ↑,
48', Fihaki C. ↓, McNicholl J. ↑,
49', Hotham N. ↓, Preston K. ↑,
49', Reihana R. ↓, Kemara T. ↑,
50', McNicholl J. (Try),
51', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
51', Blackadder E. ↓, Gardiner D. ↑,
53', Tupaea Q. (Try),
54', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
54', Brown K. ↓, Rona D. ↑,
54', Ratima C. ↓, Roe X. ↑,
61', Jacobson L. ↓, Parker S. ↑,
65', Jacomb J. (Penalty Goal),
65', Taukei'aho S. ↓, McAlister B. ↑,
65', Bower G. ↓, Sexton J. ↑,
65', Newell F. ↓, Calder S. ↑,
65', Shalfoon A. ↓, Jack L. ↑,
66', Vaa'i T. ↓, Ah Kuoi N. ↑,
70', McNicholl J. (Try),
71', Kemara T. (Missed Conversion),
71', Jordan W. ↓, Letiu M. ↑,
76', Havili D. (Try),
77', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Kemara T. (Missed Penalty),
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 3.
Crusaders has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Chiefs is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Chiefs may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 539:504. (average 27:25.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Crusaders won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 261:206. (average 26.1:20.6).
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Watch
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Bower G. 
Taumoefolau K. 
Brown K. 
McNicholl J. 
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