Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2025, Friday

Location: Sydney Football Stadium (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Waratahs		Crusaders

	1	X	2
	2.4	21	1.62
	2.4	21	1.57
	2.6	25	1.55
	2.48	20.08	1.61	Watch
	2.5	23	1.53
	2.59	20	1.55
	2.4	21	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (3.26)	21.58 ↓ (24)	1.58 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Waratahs
37.2%

Draw
4.3%

Crusaders
58.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.5%

3.9%

67.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

66.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Waratahs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Waratahs's performance.

Crusaders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crusaders might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Waratahs than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Waratahs that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crusaders could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Waratahs - Crusaders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:28

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bell A.	1. Williams T.
2. Porecki D.	2. Moananu I.
3. Botha D.	3. Sykes-Martin K.
4. Lee-Warner F.	4. Strange Q.
5. Amatosero M.	5. Shalfoon A.
6. Leota R.	6. Grace C.
7. Gamble C.	7. Christie T.
8. Gleeson L.	8. Lio-Willie C.
9. Gordon J. (C)	9. Hotham N.
10. Edmed T.	10. Reihana R.
11. Lancaster D.	11. Reece S.
12. Walton J.	12. Havili D. (C)
13. O'Donnell H.	13. Ennor B.
14. Reilly T.	14. Fihaki C.
15. Kellaway A.	15. McNicholl J.
Substitutes
16. Vailanu M.	16. Bell G.
17. Lambert T.	17. Bower G.
18. Tupou T.	18. Calder S.
19. Grant B.	19. Cahill T.
20. Sinclair H.	20. Kellow C.
21. Wilson T.	21. Preston K.
22. Bowen J.	22. O'Connor J.
23. Foketi L.	23. McLeod D.
Coaches
. McKellar D.	. Penney R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 31)
3', McNicholl J. (Try),
5', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
9', Ennor B. (Try),
10', Reihana R. (Missed Conversion),
16', Moananu I. (Try),
17', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
23', Gleeson L. (Try),
23', Edmed T. (Conversion Goal),
28', Fihaki C. (Try),
29', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
34', Leota R. ↓, Sinclair H. ↑,
40+2', Grace C. (Try),
40+3', Reihana R. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (26 - 17)
41', Botha D. ↓, Tupou T. ↑,
45', Gleeson L. (Try),
46', Edmed T. (Conversion Goal),
50', Williams T. ↓, Bower G. ↑,
50', Moananu I. ↓, Bell G. ↑,
50', Sykes-Martin K. ↓, Calder S. ↑,
50', Strange Q. ↓, Cahill T. ↑,
50', Ennor B. ↓, McLeod D. ↑,
51', McNicholl J. ↓, O'Connor J. ↑,
53', Amatosero M. (Try),
53', Edmed T. (Conversion Goal),
56', Lio-Willie C. ↓, Kellow C. ↑,
59', Reece S. (Try),
60', O'Connor J. (Conversion Goal),
60', Gordon J. ↓, Wilson T. ↑,
62', Hotham N. ↓, Preston K. ↑,
64', Porecki D. ↓, Vailanu M. ↑,
65', O'Donnell H. ↓, Foketi L. ↑,
65', Bell A. ↓, Lambert T. ↑,
65', Lee-Warner F. ↓, Grant B. ↑,
68', Edmed T. ↓, Bowen J. ↑,
71', Lancaster D. (Try),
73', Bowen J. (Conversion Goal),
75', O'Connor J. (Penalty Goal),
77', Christie T. (Try),
78', O'Connor J. (Conversion Goal),
80', Reilly T. (Try),
80', Bowen J. (Missed Conversion),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Waratahs won 3.

Recent form of Waratahs has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Crusaders is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Waratahs may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Crusaders is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Waratahs won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 343:414. (average 24.5:29.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Waratahs won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 202:222. (average 25.3:27.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Waratahs Rugby
Super Rugby
09.05.25	Waratahs - Reds	21:28 ✺
03.05.25	Brumbies - Waratahs	40:17 ✺
18.04.25	Fijian Drua - Waratahs	28:14 ✺
11.04.25	Waratahs - Chiefs	21:14 ✺
04.04.25	Moana Pasifika - Waratahs	45:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLWL
- Crusaders Rugby
Super Rugby
10.05.25	Crusaders - Chiefs	19:35 ✺
26.04.25	Highlanders - Crusaders	10:43 ✺
18.04.25	Crusaders - Blues	25:22 ✺
11.04.25	Hurricanes - Crusaders	24:31 ✺
04.04.25	Fijian Drua - Crusaders	14:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
12.04.24	Waratahs - Crusaders	43:40 OT
02.03.24	Crusaders - Waratahs	24:37
27.05.23	Crusaders - Waratahs	42:18
30.04.22	Waratahs - Crusaders	24:21
29.05.21	Waratahs - Crusaders	28:54
01.02.20	Crusaders - Waratahs	43:25
23.03.19	Waratahs - Crusaders	20:12

Waratahs - Crusaders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide