Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 10

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Go Media Stadium (Auckland)

Referee: Mabey A. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Moana Pasifika		Brumbies

	1	X	2
	3.4	23	1.33
	3.25	23	1.33
	3.25	30	1.37
	3.38	22.64	1.36
	3.2	23	1.36
	3.42	23	1.34
	3.25	30	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (2.7)	24.95 ↑ (22)	1.35 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 64.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moana Pasifika
27.9%

Draw
3.7%

Brumbies
68.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.5%

4.2%

61.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

4.4%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moana Pasifika has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moana Pasifika's form might have worsened.

Brumbies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brumbies's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moana Pasifika than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moana Pasifika, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brumbies than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brumbies, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Moana Pasifika - Brumbies Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:37

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pole A.	1. Van Nek R.
2. Moli S.	2. Lonergan L.
3. Mafileo S.	3. Alaalatoa A. (C)
4. Savage T.	4. Frost N.
5. Curry M.	5. Hooper T.
6. Faiilagi M.	6. Valetini R.
7. Havili Talitui S. (C)	7. Scott R.
8. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.	8. Tualima T.
9. Taumateine J.	9. Lonergan R.
10. Pellegrini P.	10. Lolesio N.
11. Taumoefolau K.	11. Toole C.
12. Savea J.	12. Feliuai D.
13. Patafilo P.	13. Sapsford O.
14. Inisi F.	14. Muirhead A.
15. Ofa T.	15. Wright T.
Substitutes
16. Malolo S.	16. Pollard B.
17. Moli L.	17. Slipper J.
18. Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F.	18. Fotuaika F.
19. Slade S.	19. Shaw L.
20. Tauelangi O.	20. Neville C.
21. Matavao M.	21. Goddard H.
22. Garden-Bachop J.	22. Meredith D.
23. Toala D.	23. Creighton H.
Coaches
. Umaga T.	. Larkham S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 5)
20', Hooper T. 🟨,
39', Pellegrini P. (Missed Penalty),
40', Toole C. (Try),
40', Lolesio N. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (0 - 19)
55', Pollard B. (Try),
56', Lolesio N. (Missed Conversion),
67', Pollard B. (Try),
68', Meredith D. (Conversion Goal),
74', Toole C. (Try),
75', Meredith D. (Conversion Goal),
79', Wright T. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent matches Moana Pasifika is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Brumbies is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Brumbies could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Brumbies will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Moana Pasifika won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 89:144 (average 29.7:48).

Including matches at home between the teams Moana Pasifika won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 32:22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moana Pasifika
Super Rugby
12.04.25	Blues - Moana Pasifika	36:17 ✺
04.04.25	Moana Pasifika - Waratahs	45:28 ✺
29.03.25	Crusaders - Moana Pasifika	29:45 ✺
21.03.25	Moana Pasifika - Chiefs	35:50 ✺
08.03.25	Moana Pasifika - Hurricanes	40:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.7 LWWLW
- Brumbies Rugby
Super Rugby
12.04.25	Reds - Brumbies	26:39 ✺
28.03.25	Brumbies - Highlanders	34:27 ✺
22.03.25	Waratahs - Brumbies	28:23 ✺
14.03.25	Brumbies - Fijian Drua	38:21 ✺
07.03.25	Blues - Brumbies	20:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
22.03.24	Brumbies - Moana Pasifika	60:21
18.03.23	Brumbies - Moana Pasifika	62:36
28.05.22	Moana Pasifika - Brumbies	32:22

Moana Pasifika - Brumbies: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide