Match Info

Pacific Nations Cup - 3rd place

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
World	RugbyPass TV


	Canada		USA

	1	X	2
	3.6	19	1.31
	3.25	24	1.35
	3.2	21	1.33
	3.4	24.79	1.29
	3.05	28	1.41	Watch
	3.5	26	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↓ (3.92)	23.8 ↓ (29)	1.33 ↑ (1.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Canada
27.4%

Draw
3.8%

USA
68.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

3.2%

73.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

USA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Canada - USA Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. USA will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:19

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 10)
10', LeSage B. (Try),
11', McMullin T. (Conversion Goal),
17', Flesch M. (Try),
22', Pifeleti K. (Try),
22', Carty L. (Conversion Goal),
39', Carty L. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 6)
43', Carty L. (Penalty Goal),
59', Kilgour J. (Try),
60', McMullin T. (Conversion Goal),
72', Carty L. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canada won 1.

USA could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to USA for this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Canada has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 214:348 (averaging 19.5:31.6 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canada rugby
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
12.09.26	Fiji - Canada	45:29 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
05.09.26	Japan - Canada	57:12 ✺
World Rugby Nations Cup
18.07.26	Canada - Zimbabwe	23:19 ✺
11.07.26	Canada - Portugal	14:38 ✺
04.07.26	Canada - Spain	42:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLT
- USA rugby
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
12.09.26	Japan - USA	63:14 ✺
World Rugby Nations Cup
18.07.26	USA - Spain	29:22 ✺
11.07.26	USA - Zimbabwe	31:15 ✺
04.07.26	USA - Portugal	30:29 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
15.11.25	Romania - USA	18:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
22.08.25	Canada - USA	34:20
31.08.24	USA - Canada	28:15
Friendly International Rugby Union
11.09.21	USA - Canada	38:16
07.09.19	Canada - USA	15:20
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
27.07.19	USA - Canada	47:19
Friendly International Rugby Union
23.06.18	Canada - USA	17:42
Americas Championship Rugby
10.02.18	USA - Canada	29:10

Canada - USA: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide