Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 1

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, S4C Digital, URC


	Cardiff Rugby		Lions

	1	X	2
	1.29	21	3.75
	1.26	25	3.85
	1.10	29.94	7.37	Watch
	1.26	23	4.2
	1.29	26	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.31)	24.99 ↑ (21)	4.58 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
75.8%

Draw
3.8%

Lions
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.3%

4.4%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cardiff Rugby's performance.

Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Cardiff Rugby - Lions Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 51.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -8.5 - Cardiff (1.80) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 13)
2nd Half (19 - 7)

Preview

Lions's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cardiff may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lions has had a series of home games.

In this match, Cardiff is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 71:119. (average 17.8:29.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 38:48. (average 19:24).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
16.05.25	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	34:24 ✺
10.05.25	Blue Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	45:21 ✺
25.04.25	Cardiff Rugby - Munster	26:21 ✺
19.04.25	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	19:36 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	35:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWWL
- Lions Rugby
Currie Cup
20.09.25	Lions - Griquas	25:27 ✺
13.09.25	Lions - Boland Cavaliers	67:19 ✺
06.09.25	Lions - Griquas	37:7 ✺
30.08.25	Lions - Blue Bulls	44:5 ✺
23.08.25	Cheetahs - Lions	47:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
21.03.25	Cardiff Rugby - Lions	20:17
11.05.24	Lions - Cardiff Rugby	34:13
30.09.22	Cardiff Rugby - Lions	18:31
13.03.22	Lions - Cardiff Rugby	37:20

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