Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 16

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Supersport Action
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, BBC Two, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, URC
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cardiff Rugby		Munster

	1	X	2
	2.63	21	1.53
	2.6	26	1.53
	2.8	22	1.5
	2.64	20.63	1.55
	2.62	23	1.5
	2.84	18	1.45
	2.8	22	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↓ (2.82)	21.8 ↑ (21.4)	1.51 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
34.3%

Draw
4.3%

Munster
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

4.3%

62.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

4.5%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Munster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Rugby than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Munster than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Cardiff Rugby - Munster Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:27

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Southworth D.	1. Milne M.
2. Belcher L.	2. Scannell N.
3. Assiratti K.	3. Ryan J.
4. McNally J.	4. Wycherley F.
5. Williams T.	5. Beirne T.
6. Botham J.	6. O'Donoghue J.
7. Young T.	7. Kendellen A.
8. Faletau T.	8. Coombes G.
9. Mulder J.	9. Casey C.
10. Sheedy C.	10. Crowley J.
11. Hamer-Webb G.	11. Abrahams T.
12. Thomas B.	12. Nankivell A.
13. Millard H.	13. Farrell T.
14. Adams J.	14. Nash C.
15. Winnett C.	15. Haley M.
Substitutes
16. Lloyd E.	16. Barron D.
17. Domachowski C.	17. Donnelly M.
18. Litterick R.	18. Foxe R.
19. Thornton R.	19. Kleyn J.
20. Lawrence A.	20. Quinn R.
21. Donnell B.	21. Patterson P.
22. Davies A.	22. Butler T.
23. de Beer T.	23. O'Brien S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 14)
12', Nash C. (Try),
13', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
26', Hamer-Webb G. (Try),
28', Millard H. (Try),
28', Sheedy C. (Conversion Goal),
36', Haley M. (Try),
37', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 7)
51', Farrell T. (Try),
51', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
59', (Penalty Try),
63', Mulder J. (Try),
63', Young T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Munster could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

Munster will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 421:573 (average 21.1:28.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Cardiff won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 197:207 (average 21.9:23).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
19.04.25	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	19:36 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	35:20 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	20:19 ✺
21.03.25	Cardiff Rugby - Lions	20:17 ✺
01.03.25	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	42:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLWL
- Munster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
19.04.25	Munster - Blue Bulls	13:16 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.04.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Munster	47:29 ✺
05.04.25	La Rochelle - Munster	24:25 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Connacht - Munster	24:30 ✺
21.03.25	Glasgow Warriors - Munster	28:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
30.03.24	Munster - Cardiff Rugby	20:15
17.09.22	Cardiff Rugby - Munster	20:13
29.04.22	Munster - Cardiff Rugby	42:21
Pro14 Rainbow Cup
28.05.21	Munster - Cardiff Rugby	31:27
United Rugby Championship
26.02.21	Cardiff Rugby - Munster	11:20
26.10.20	Munster - Cardiff Rugby	38:27
02.11.19	Cardiff Rugby - Munster	23:33

Upcoming Matches