Match Info

EUROPE: CHALLENGE CUP - ROUND 3

Date: 15 January 2023, Sunday


	Cardiff Rugby		Newcastle Red Bulls

	1	X	2
	1.3	21	3.75
	1.29	26	3.6
	1.31	23	3.65
	1.36	21	3.25
	1.29	26	3.8	Watch
	1.31	23	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.36)	23.33 ↓ (24.5)	3.6 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
70.4%

Draw
4%

Newcastle Red Bulls
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

3.8%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

3.8%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff Rugby than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cardiff Rugby - Newcastle Red Bulls Predictions

Users Predictions: Cardiff Rugby will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:19

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Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Newcastle Falcons could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cardiff is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Cardiff to win the game is with odds 1.34.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Cardiff won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 102-108.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
07.01.23	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	22:28 ✺
01.01.23	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	19:22 ✺
26.12.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	24:29 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.12.22	Newcastle Red Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	10:47 ✺
10.12.22	Cardiff Rugby - Brive	41:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWWW
- Newcastle Red Bulls
English Premiership Rugby
07.01.23	Newcastle Red Bulls - Leicester Tigers	45:26 ✺
31.12.22	Bath - Newcastle Red Bulls	24:16 ✺
23.12.22	Newcastle Red Bulls - Sale Sharks	20:14 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.12.22	Newcastle Red Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	10:47 ✺
10.12.22	Connacht - Newcastle Red Bulls	22:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
17.12.22	Newcastle Red Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	10:47
11.12.20	Newcastle Red Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	20:33
Anglo-Welsh Cup
11.11.17	Newcastle Red Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	57:0
LV= Cup
07.11.14	Newcastle Red Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	21:22

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