Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 4

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC


	Newport Gwent Dragons		Cardiff Rugby

	1	X	2
	3.4	26	1.33
	3.3	23	1.34
	4.25	24.86	1.24	Watch
	3.52	20	1.34
	3.6	26	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (3.19)	23.97 ↑ (20.33)	1.31 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport Gwent Dragons
25.6%

Draw
3.9%

Cardiff Rugby
70.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.8%

4.5%

66.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport Gwent Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Cardiff Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Cardiff will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 20:29

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 17)
2nd Half (10 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 0.

In this match, Cardiff is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 19 matches, and goals 368:512. (average 18.4:25.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Dragons won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 186:214. (average 18.6:21.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
11.10.25	Glasgow Warriors - Newport Gwent Dragons	49:0 ✺
03.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Sharks	17:17 ✺
26.09.25	Ulster - Newport Gwent Dragons	42:21 ✺
17.05.25	Blue Bulls - Newport Gwent Dragons	57:15 ✺
10.05.25	Stormers - Newport Gwent Dragons	48:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLLL
- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
11.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	14:8 ✺
04.10.25	Munster - Cardiff Rugby	23:20 ✺
27.09.25	Cardiff Rugby - Lions	33:20 ✺
16.05.25	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	34:24 ✺
10.05.25	Blue Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	45:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
26.12.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	22:24
30.11.24	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:23
26.12.23	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	55:21
29.10.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	9:16
26.12.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	24:29
15.10.22	Cardiff Rugby - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:14
13.05.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	18:19

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