Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 3

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Variety 1
Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC


	Cardiff Rugby		Connacht

	1	X	2
	1.62	21	2.38
	1.6	23	2.38
	1.58	22.60	2.49	Watch
	1.58	21	2.51
	1.58	21	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.52)	21.72 ↑ (20)	2.45 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
58.1%

Draw
4.3%

Connacht
37.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.8%

4.6%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Cardiff Rugby - Connacht Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 3)
2nd Half (7 - 5)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 0.

Cardiff may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cardiff might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 386:456. (average 19.3:22.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 188:161. (average 20.9:17.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
04.10.25	Munster - Cardiff Rugby	23:20 ✺
27.09.25	Cardiff Rugby - Lions	33:20 ✺
16.05.25	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	34:24 ✺
10.05.25	Blue Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	45:21 ✺
25.04.25	Cardiff Rugby - Munster	26:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLLW
- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
27.09.25	Connacht - Benetton Treviso	26:15 ✺
17.05.25	Zebre - Connacht	12:22 ✺
10.05.25	Connacht - Edinburgh	21:31 ✺
26.04.25	Lions - Connacht	26:7 ✺
19.04.25	Stormers - Connacht	34:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	35:20
United Rugby Championship
15.02.25	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	24:19
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.25	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	19:28
United Rugby Championship
17.02.24	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	12:16
15.04.23	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	38:19
24.09.21	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	33:21
20.02.21	Connacht - Cardiff Rugby	32:17

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
23.10.26	Cardiff Rugby - Sharks	✺
- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
23.10.26	Connacht - Zebre	✺

Cardiff Rugby - Connacht: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide