Match Info
Super Rugby - Round 4Date: 6 March 2026, FridayLocation: Waikato Stadium (Hamilton)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Africa | SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby |
Asia | Premier Sports Rugby Asia |
Australia | Stan Sport |
New-zealand | Sky Sport 2 |
Nigeria | SuperSport Rugby |
South-africa | SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby |
United-kingdom | Sky Go, Sky Sports+ |
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 |
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 |
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Chiefs |
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Moana Pasifika |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1 |
51 |
23 |
|
 |
1 |
40 |
14 |
|
 |
1.01 |
41.31 |
15.4 |
Watch |
 |
1 |
29 |
17 |
|
 |
1.01 |
17.7 |
29 |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1 ↓ (1.05) |
35.8 ↑ (28.81) |
19.68 ↑ (10.76) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 67.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-34)
- The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Chiefs 92.7% | Draw 2.6% | Moana Pasifika 4.7% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)Moana Pasifika has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Chiefs - Moana Pasifika Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 69.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 51:17 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1. Kumeroa B.
| 1. Pole A.
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2. Taukei'aho S.
| 2. Sanerivi M.
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3. O’Neill R.
| 3. Apoua C.
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4. Ah Kuoi N.
| 4. Savage T.
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5. Vaa'i T.
| 5. Craig A.
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6. Finau S.
| 6. Faiilagi M.
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7. Brown J.
| 7. Paea S.
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8. Parker S.
| 8. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.
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9. Ratima C.
| 9. Pulu A.
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10. McKenzie D.
| 10. Garden-Bachop J.
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11. Carter L.
| 11. Alaimalo S.
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12. Tupaea Q.
| 12. Laumape N.
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13. Foketi L.
| 13. Latu T.
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14. Narawa E.
| 14. Ofa T.
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15. Coombes-Fabling L.
| 15. Vaihu G.
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| Substitutes |
|---|
16. Thompson T.
| 16. Moli S.
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17. Norris O.
| 17. Hala M.
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18. Dyer G.
| 18. Faleiva L.
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19. Lord J.
| 19. Tauatevalu O.
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20. Boshier K.
| 20. Tauelangi O.
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21. Tahuriorangi T.
| 21. Lam J.
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22. Jacomb J.
| 22. Pellegrini P.
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23. Brown K.
| 23. Pulini T.
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| Coaches |
|---|
. Gibbes J.
| . Umaga T.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (31 - 14)
- 3', Tupaea Q. (Try),
- 4', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 5', Coombes-Fabling L. (Try),
- 6', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 10', Vaihu G. (Try),
- 11', Garden-Bachop J. (Conversion Goal),
- 17', Carter L. (Try),
- 18', McKenzie D. (Missed Conversion),
- 18', Finau S. ↓, Boshier K. ↑,
- 20', Alaimalo S. ↓, Pellegrini P. ↑,
- 20', Boshier K. ↓, Lord J. ↑,
- 22', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. (Try),
- 23', Garden-Bachop J. (Conversion Goal),
- 30', Narawa E. (Try),
- 31', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 32', Kumeroa B. ↓, Norris O. ↑,
- 33', Foketi L. (Try),
- 35', McKenzie D. (Missed Conversion),
- 2nd Half (26 - 10)
- 41', Pulu A. ↓, Lam J. ↑,
- 41', Apoua C. ↓, Faleiva L. ↑,
- 43', Tupou Ta'eiloa S. (Try),
- 44', Garden-Bachop J. (Missed Conversion),
- 46', Sanerivi M. ↓, Moli S. ↑,
- 48', Carter L. (Try),
- 49', McKenzie D. (Missed Conversion),
- 50', O’Neill R. ↓, Dyer G. ↑,
- 54', Carter L. (Try),
- 55', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 55', Paea S. ↓, Tauelangi O. ↑,
- 56', Narawa E. ↓, Jacomb J. ↑,
- 56', Pole A. ↓, Hala M. ↑,
- 56', Craig A. ↓, Tauatevalu O. ↑,
- 61', Foketi L. ↓, Brown K. ↑,
- 61', Brown K. (Try),
- 62', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 62', Taukei'aho S. ↓, Thompson T. ↑,
- 63', Garden-Bachop J. ↓, Pulini T. ↑,
- 66', Ratima C. ↓, Tahuriorangi T. ↑,
- 66', Thompson T. (Try),
- 67', McKenzie D. (Conversion Goal),
- 79', Ofa T. (Try),
- 80', Pellegrini P. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chiefs won 5. In this match, Chiefs is the undeniable favorite.In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chiefs won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 402:114. (average 57.4:16.3).Including home matches between the teams, Chiefs won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 257:43. (average 64.3:10.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Super Rugby | | | 24.05.25 | Chiefs - Moana Pasifika | 85:7 | | 21.03.25 | Moana Pasifika - Chiefs | 35:50 | | 10.05.24 | Moana Pasifika - Chiefs | 7:43 | | 06.04.24 | Chiefs - Moana Pasifika | 68:12 | | 04.03.23 | Moana Pasifika - Chiefs | 29:52 | | 16.04.22 | Chiefs - Moana Pasifika | 45:12 | | 19.03.22 | Chiefs - Moana Pasifika | 59:12 |
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