Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 2

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Hurricanes		Moana Pasifika

	1	X	2
	1.04	51	10
	1.03	50	10
	1.04	43.22	11.24	Watch
	1.03	34	11
	1.02	27	17.4	Watch
	1.08	61	7.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↓ (1.22)	44.37 ↑ (24.85)	11.23 ↑ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 67.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-28)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hurricanes
89.6%

Draw
2.1%

Moana Pasifika
8.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

75.7%

3.7%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hurricanes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hurricanes's performance.

Moana Pasifika has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Moana Pasifika might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -22.5 - Hurricanes (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +21.5 - Moana Pasifika (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hurricanes (votes: 1 - 50%). Moana Pasifika (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 48:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Numia X.	1. Pole A.
2. Aumua A.	2. Moli S.
3. Lauaki S.	3. Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F.
4. Plummer H.	4. Poloniati S.
5. Dearns W.	5. Aho A.
6. Flanders D.	6. Paea S.
7. Lakai P.	7. Toelafoa T.
8. Iose B.	8. Ropeti D.
9. Enari E.	9. Nginingini S.
10. Cameron B.	10. Pellegrini P.
11. Fineanganofo F.	11. Tuitama T.
12. Barrett J.	12. Peni F.
13. Sullivan B.	13. Vaihu G.
14. Moorby J.	14. Leota I.
15. Harkin C.	15. Toleafoa S.
Substitutes
16. Devery J.	16. Harada M.
17. Rakete-Stones P.	17. Tuipulotu T.
18. Mafile'o T.	18. Faleiva L.
19. Petaia M.	19. Craig A.
20. Shields B.	20. Faiilagi M.
21. Poliko A.	21. Matavao M.
22. Roigard C.	22. Havili W.
23. Proctor B.	23. Ofa T.
Coaches
. Laidlaw C.	. Umaga T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 5)
7', Tuitama T. (Try),
8', Pellegrini P. (Missed Conversion),
8', Plummer H. ↓, Shields B. ↑,
12', Fineanganofo F. (Try),
12', Cameron B. (Conversion Goal),
16', Leota I. ↓, Ofa T. ↑,
17', Moorby J. (Try),
18', Cameron B. (Missed Conversion),
22', Shields B. ↓, Plummer H. ↑,
24', Cameron B. ↓, Proctor B. ↑,
25', Fineanganofo F. (Try),
26', Barrett J. (Missed Conversion),
29', Moorby J. (Try),
30', Barrett J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 5)
44', Moorby J. (Try),
45', Barrett J. (Conversion Goal),
47', Lauaki S. ↓, Mafile'o T. ↑,
49', Pellegrini P. ↓, Havili W. ↑,
50', Faiilagi M. ↓, Craig A. ↑,
51', Pole A. ↓, Tuipulotu T. ↑,
51', Moli S. ↓, Harada M. ↑,
51', Sae-Ta'ufo'ou F. ↓, Faleiva L. ↑,
51', Numia X. ↓, Rakete-Stones P. ↑,
51', Lakai P. ↓, Poliko A. ↑,
51', Enari E. ↓, Roigard C. ↑,
56', Aumua A. ↓, Devery J. ↑,
57', Nginingini S. ↓, Matavao M. ↑,
57', Plummer H. ↓, Shields B. ↑,
62', Iose B. (Try),
63', Barrett J. (Conversion Goal),
63', Havili W. ↓, Pellegrini P. ↑,
67', Pellegrini P. (Try),
67', Pellegrini P. (Missed Conversion),
68', Flanders D. ↓, Petaia M. ↑,
74', Iose B. (Try),
75', Barrett J. (Conversion Goal),
79', Proctor B. (Try),
80', Barrett J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hurricanes won 4.

Moana Pasifika may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hurricanes is the clear favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Hurricanes won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 329:129. (average 47:18.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hurricanes won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 220:70. (average 55:17.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hurricanes Rugby
Super Rugby
07.06.25	Brumbies - Hurricanes	35:28 ✺
31.05.25	Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika	64:12 ✺
23.05.25	Reds - Hurricanes	27:31 ✺
16.05.25	Hurricanes - Highlanders	24:20 ✺
03.05.25	Hurricanes - Chiefs	35:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWWWW
- Moana Pasifika
Super Rugby
13.02.26	Fijian Drua - Moana Pasifika	26:40 ✺
31.05.25	Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika	64:12 ✺
24.05.25	Chiefs - Moana Pasifika	85:7 ✺
17.05.25	Moana Pasifika - Blues	27:21 ✺
03.05.25	Highlanders - Moana Pasifika	29:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
31.05.25	Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika	64:12
08.03.25	Moana Pasifika - Hurricanes	40:31
17.05.24	Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika	32:24
13.05.23	Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika	71:22
25.03.23	Moana Pasifika - Hurricanes	0:59
12.04.22	Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika	53:12
25.03.22	Moana Pasifika - Hurricanes	19:19

Hurricanes - Moana Pasifika: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide