Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP - ROUND 4

Date: 19 January 2024, Friday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Australia	07:00	beIN Sports
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	beIN Sports Max
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
United Kingdom	20:00	TNT Sports


	Connacht		Bristol Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.57	29	2.4
	1.53	21	2.5
				Watch
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.59	26	2.48
	1.58	23	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.66)	24 ↑ (20.67)	2.46 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Connacht
58.7%

Draw
3.8%

Bristol Rugby
37.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.5%

4.5%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

4.5%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Bristol Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rugby than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Connacht - Bristol Rugby Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:23

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Preview

Connacht is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Bristol is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bristol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Connacht will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Connacht won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 18-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Connacht won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 18-27.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.01.24	Lyon - Connacht	34:20 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.24	Connacht - Munster	22:9 ✺
22.12.23	Ulster - Connacht	20:19 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Saracens - Connacht	55:36 ✺
08.12.23	Connacht - Bordeaux Bègles	5:41 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLL
- Bristol Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.01.24	Bristol Rugby - Blue Bulls	17:31 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
05.01.24	Sale Sharks - Bristol Rugby	14:22 ✺
29.12.23	Bristol Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	14:24 ✺
22.12.23	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bristol Rugby	13:21 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Bristol Rugby	36:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
20.12.20	Connacht - Bristol Rugby	18:27

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
30.10.26	Connacht - Leinster	✺
- Bristol Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
30.10.26	Bristol Rugby - Leicester Tigers	✺

Connacht - Bristol Rugby