Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 13

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Ravenhill Stadium (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Ulster		Connacht

	1	X	2
	1.17	34	5
	1.17	29	4.9
	1.16	29.36	5.54	Watch
	1.22	23	4.5
	1.24	23	4.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↑ (1.16)	27.67 ↓ (29.36)	4.85 ↓ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
77.6%

Draw
3.3%

Connacht
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

80.1%

3.2%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Ulster - Connacht Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
2nd Half (12 - 19)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 4.

In this match, Ulster is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 443:378. (average 22.2:18.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 264:159. (average 24:14.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
10	Ulster	3	0	2	1	88:93	7
13	Connacht	3	1	0	2	56:84	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
13.03.26	Edinburgh - Ulster	19:40 ✺
28.02.26	Ospreys - Ulster	21:10 ✺
31.01.26	Ulster - Cardiff Rugby	21:14 ✺
24.01.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	27:22 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Ulster - Stade Français	26:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWLW
- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
13.03.26	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	31:14 ✺
28.02.26	Connacht - Glasgow Warriors	15:10 ✺
31.01.26	Zebre - Connacht	15:31 ✺
24.01.26	Connacht - Leinster	23:34 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Connacht - Montauban	75:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
27.12.25	Connacht - Ulster	24:29
28.12.24	Connacht - Ulster	7:17
12.10.24	Ulster - Connacht	32:24
22.12.23	Ulster - Connacht	20:19
04.11.23	Connacht - Ulster	22:20
05.05.23	Ulster - Connacht	10:15
23.12.22	Connacht - Ulster	20:22

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