Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP - ROUND 3

Date: 13 January 2024, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Lyon		Connacht

	1	X	2
	1.3	26	3.75
	1.3	23	3.5
				Watch
	1.3	26	3.5
	1.31	31	3.51
	1.34	26	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↑ (1.3)	26.4 ↑ (25)	3.51 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
70.3%

Draw
3.5%

Connacht
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

3.7%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74%

3.6%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lyon - Connacht Predictions

Users Predictions: Lyon will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:22

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Preview

Recent matches Lyon is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Connacht is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Connacht could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lyon is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lyon OU
French Top 14
06.01.24	Toulouse - Lyon	45:0 ✺
30.12.23	Lyon - Montpellier	20:18 ✺
22.12.23	Bordeaux Bègles - Lyon	46:10 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Lyon - Blue Bulls	29:28 ✺
09.12.23	Bristol Rugby - Lyon	36:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLWL
- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
01.01.24	Connacht - Munster	22:9 ✺
22.12.23	Ulster - Connacht	20:19 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Saracens - Connacht	55:36 ✺
08.12.23	Connacht - Bordeaux Bègles	5:41 ✺
United Rugby Championship
02.12.23	Connacht - Leinster	22:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLL

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