Match Info

WORLD: Super Rugby - Round 15

Date: 31 May 2024, Friday

Location: Churchill Park (Lautoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
South-africa	SuperSport Tennis


	Fijian Drua		Rebels

	1	X	2
	1.17	34	5
	1.17	34	5
	1.21	20	4.8
	1.17	29	5
	1.18	20	5.06	Watch
	1.19	22	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.31)	26.5 ↓ (32)	4.94 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fijian Drua
77.9%

Draw
3.5%

Rebels
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

2.9%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.7%

3.1%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fijian Drua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fijian Drua's performance.

Rebels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rebels might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fijian Drua than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fijian Drua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rebels than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rebels could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fijian Drua - Rebels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hetet H.	1. Kailea I. A.
2. Ikanivere T.	2. Uelese J.
3. Doge M.	3. Tupou T.
4. Vocevoce M.	4. Smith A.
5. Rotuisolia R. L.	5. Canham J.
6. Waqa E.	6. Kemeny J.
7. Salawa K.	7. Wilkin B.
8. Derenalagi M.	8. Leota R.
9. Lomani F.	9. Louwrens R.
10. Armstrong-Ravula I.	10. Gordon C.
11. Nalaga W.	11. Lancaster D.
12. Valetini K.	12. Feliuai D.
13. Masi I.	13. Daugunu F.
14. Ravutaumada S.	14. Kellaway A.
15. Droasese I.	15. Gordon M.
Substitutes
16. Togiatama Z.	16. Dobbins E.
17. Natave L.	17. Gibbon M.
18. Tawake S.	18. Talakai S.
19. Nasilasila I.	19. Tualima T.
20. Murray M.	20. Nabolakasi M.
21. Canakaivata E.	21. Tuttle J.
22. Kuruvoli S.	22. Vaihu G.
23. Muntz C.	23. Strachan J.
Coaches
. Byrne M.	. Foote K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 19)
7', Nalaga W. (Try),
7', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Missed Conversion),
12', Lomani F. 🟨,
12', (Penalty Try),
13', Kellaway A. (Try),
14', Strachan J. (Conversion Goal),
15', Leota R. ↓, Nabolakasi M. ↑,
19', Droasese I. (Try),
20', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
27', Canham J. (Try),
28', Strachan J. (Missed Conversion),
28', Nabolakasi M. ↓, Leota R. ↑,
36', Masi I. (Try),
37', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 0)
41', Ravutaumada S. (Try),
42', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
43', Kellaway A. ↓, Vaihu G. ↑,
45', Armstrong-Ravula I. ↓, Muntz C. ↑,
47', Nalaga W. (Try),
48', Muntz C. (Conversion Goal),
49', Tupou T. ↓, Gibbon M. ↑,
49', Kailea I. A. ↓, Talakai S. ↑,
51', Rotuisolia R. L. ↓, Nasilasila I. ↑,
51', Derenalagi M. ↓, Canakaivata E. ↑,
52', Daugunu F. ↓, Strachan J. ↑,
53', Lomani F. (Try),
54', Muntz C. (Conversion Goal),
54', Uelese J. ↓, Dobbins E. ↑,
55', Leota R. ↓, Tualima T. ↑,
59', Doge M. ↓, Natave L. ↑,
59', Hetet H. ↓, Tawake S. ↑,
61', Waqa E. ↓, Murray M. ↑,
63', Wilkin B. ↓, Nabolakasi M. ↑,
68', Muntz C. (Missed Penalty),
69', Ikanivere T. ↓, Togiatama Z. ↑,
69', Louwrens R. ↓, Tuttle J. ↑,
75', Droasese I. ↓, Kuruvoli S. ↑,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent matches Fijian Drua is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rebels has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fijian Drua could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fijian Drua is certain favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Fijian Drua won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 116-137.

Including matches at home between the teams Fijian Drua won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 69-54.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fijian Drua
Super Rugby
25.05.24	Highlanders - Fijian Drua	39:3 ✺
17.05.24	Fijian Drua - Reds	28:19 ✺
11.05.24	Western Force - Fijian Drua	48:10 ✺
04.05.24	Brumbies - Fijian Drua	28:20 ✺
26.04.24	Fijian Drua - Moana Pasifika	24:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLW
- Rebels Rugby
Super Rugby
24.05.24	Brumbies - Rebels	53:17 ✺
17.05.24	Rebels - Chiefs	23:26 ✺
10.05.24	Reds - Rebels	26:22 ✺
03.05.24	Rebels - Blues	11:38 ✺
26.04.24	Crusaders - Rebels	39:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
05.04.24	Rebels - Fijian Drua	41:20
31.03.23	Fijian Drua - Rebels	38:28
25.03.22	Rebels - Fijian Drua	42:27
04.03.22	Fijian Drua - Rebels	31:26

Fijian Drua - Rebels: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide