Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: HFC Bank Stadium (Suva)

Referee: Doleman J. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fijian Drua		Waratahs

	1	X	2
	1.29	26	3.75
	1.29	26	3.65
	1.31	24.75	3.7
	1.29	26	3.6
	1.26	21	3.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.56)	24.75 ↓ (25)	3.71 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fijian Drua
71.4%

Draw
3.7%

Waratahs
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

3.7%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

3.7%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fijian Drua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fijian Drua's performance.

Waratahs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Waratahs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fijian Drua than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fijian Drua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waratahs than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Waratahs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Fijian Drua - Waratahs Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fijian Drua will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ravai P.	1. Barrett J.
2. Togiatama Z.	2. Moananu I.
3. Doge M.	3. Botha D.
4. Nasilasila I.	4. Philip M.
5. Mayanavanua T.	5. Amatosero M.
6. Waqa E.	6. Halaholo C.
7. Salawa K.	7. Gamble C.
8. Canakaivata E.	8. Scott-Young A.
9. Fines-Leleiwasa I.	9. Wilson T.
10. Armstrong-Ravula I.	10. Bowen J.
11. Mataele M.	11. Reilly T.
12. Vakatawa V.	12. Creighton L.
13. Samusamuvodre T.	13. Sua'ali'i J.
14. Lomani F.	14. Potter H.
15. Rabitu I.	15. Jorgensen M.
Substitutes
16. Tagivetaua K.	16. Finau O.
17. Tuqiri E.	17. Kailea I.
18. Tawake S.	18. Ranawai A.
19. Vocevoce M.	19. Grant B.
20. Miramira V.	20. Adamson J.
21. Tuwai I.	21. McDonald M.
22. Baselala P.	22. Debreczeni J.
23. Valetini K.	23. Harvey S.
Coaches
. Jackson G.	. McKellar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 36)
5', Potter H. (Try),
7', Reilly T. (Missed Conversion),
12', Moananu I. (Try),
13', Harvey S. (Conversion Goal),
18', Jorgensen M. (Try),
19', Harvey S. (Conversion Goal),
21', Doge M. (Try),
22', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
24', Harvey S. (Try),
25', Harvey S. (Missed Conversion),
28', Wilson T. (Try),
28', Harvey S. (Missed Conversion),
33', Rabitu I. 🟨,
35', Scott-Young A. (Try),
36', Bowen J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (28 - 14)
41', Ravai P. ↓, Tuqiri E. ↑,
41', Doge M. ↓, Tawake S. ↑,
41', Togiatama Z. ↓, Tagivetaua K. ↑,
41', Waqa E. ↓, Miramira V. ↑,
43', Moananu I. (Try),
44', Bowen J. (Conversion Goal),
44', Tuqiri E. ↓, Ravai P. ↑,
45', Armstrong-Ravula I. ↓, Valetini K. ↑,
45', Canakaivata E. (Try),
46', Valetini K. (Conversion Goal),
50', Botha D. ↓, Ranawai A. ↑,
53', Salawa K. (Try),
53', Valetini K. (Conversion Goal),
53', Barrett J. ↓, Kailea I. ↑,
54', Gamble C. ↓, Adamson J. ↑,
56', Nasilasila I. ↓, Vocevoce M. ↑,
60', Wilson T. ↓, McDonald M. ↑,
61', Ranawai A. (Try),
62', Bowen J. (Conversion Goal),
63', Lomani F. ↓, Baselala P. ↑,
63', Moananu I. ↓, Finau O. ↑,
63', Amatosero M. ↓, Grant B. ↑,
65', Canakaivata E. ↓, Tuwai I. ↑,
65', Creighton L. ↓, Poolman G. ↑,
65', Bowen J. ↓, Debreczeni J. ↑,
69', Samusamuvodre T. (Try),
69', Valetini K. (Conversion Goal),
80', Mayanavanua T. (Try),
80', Valetini K. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 8)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fijian Drua won 2.

Recent performances by Fijian Drua have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Waratahs is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Waratahs may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fijian Drua is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Fijian Drua won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 163:271. (average 20.4:33.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fijian Drua won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 98:134. (average 24.5:33.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fijian Drua
Super Rugby
02.05.26	Fijian Drua - Highlanders	24:14 ✺
26.04.26	Chiefs - Fijian Drua	42:22 ✺
18.04.26	Brumbies - Fijian Drua	28:33 ✺
11.04.26	Fijian Drua - Western Force	24:22 ✺
03.04.26	Crusaders - Fijian Drua	69:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 WLWWL
- Waratahs Rugby
Super Rugby
09.05.26	Highlanders - Waratahs	31:26 ✺
01.05.26	Waratahs - Western Force	17:20 ✺
24.04.26	Crusaders - Waratahs	35:20 ✺
17.04.26	Waratahs - Moana Pasifika	29:14 ✺
04.04.26	Chiefs - Waratahs	42:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
20.02.26	Waratahs - Fijian Drua	36:13
18.04.25	Fijian Drua - Waratahs	28:14
28.02.25	Waratahs - Fijian Drua	29:24
22.03.24	Fijian Drua - Waratahs	39:36 OT
20.05.23	Waratahs - Fijian Drua	32:18
04.03.23	Fijian Drua - Waratahs	17:46
01.04.22	Fijian Drua - Waratahs	14:38

Fijian Drua - Waratahs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide