Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 10

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Sydney Football Stadium (Sydney)

Referee: Mabey A. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Waratahs		Moana Pasifika

	1	X	2
	1.06	41	8.5
	1.05	45	8.6
	1.05	36.39	10.48
	1.04	34	9.5
	1.06	50	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.05 ↓ (1.06)	41.28 ↑ (33.25)	9.42 ↓ (9.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 65.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-23)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Waratahs
87.9%

Draw
2.2%

Moana Pasifika
9.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

87.4%

2.8%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Waratahs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

The chances for Moana Pasifika have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Waratahs - Moana Pasifika Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 45:22

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lambert T.	1. Pole A.
2. Dobbins E.	2. Sanerivi M.
3. Botha D.	3. Apoua C.
4. Philip M. (C)	4. Savage T.
5. Amatosero M.	5. Poloniati V.
6. Scott-Young A.	6. Faiilagi M. (C)
7. Gamble C.	7. Paea S.
8. Samu P.	8. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.
9. Gordon J.	9. Matavao M.
10. Debreczeni J.	10. Pellegrini P.
11. Jorgensen M.	11. Vaihu G.
12. Creighton L.	12. Latu T.
13. Walton J.	13. Alaimalo S.
14. Kellaway A.	14. Tuitama T.
15. Harvey S.	15. Havili W.
Substitutes
16. Faingaa F.	16. Moli S.
17. Kailea I.	17. Hala M.
18. Amone S.	18. Latu P.
19. Blyth A.	19. Tupou J.
20. Halaholo C.	20. Tauelangi O.
21. Adamson J.	21. Taumateine J.
22. Wilson T.	22. Peni F.
23. Reilly T.	23. Pulini T.
Coaches
. McKellar D.	. Umaga T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 14)
4', Matavao M. (Try),
5', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
7', Creighton L. ↓, Reilly T. ↑,
7', Vaihu G. 🟨,
14', Jorgensen M. ↓, Wilson T. ↑,
15', Reilly T. (Try),
15', Harvey S. (Conversion Goal),
19', Matavao M. (Try),
20', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
24', Harvey S. (Try),
25', Harvey S. (Missed Conversion),
25', Wilson T. ↓, Jorgensen M. ↑,
26', Poloniati V. ↓, Tupou J. ↑,
2nd Half (17 - 0)
46', Apoua C. ↓, Latu P. ↑,
50', Matavao M. ↓, Taumateine J. ↑,
52', Lambert T. ↓, Kailea I. ↑,
53', Savage T. 🟨,
53', Kailea I. (Try),
53', Harvey S. (Missed Conversion),
54', Botha D. ↓, Amone S. ↑,
54', Amatosero M. ↓, Blyth A. ↑,
54', Dobbins E. ↓, Faingaa F. ↑,
55', Paea S. ↓, Tauelangi O. ↑,
63', Scott-Young A. ↓, Halaholo C. ↑,
65', Gordon J. ↓, Wilson T. ↑,
65', Gamble C. ↓, Adamson J. ↑,
69', Harvey S. (Try),
70', Harvey S. (Missed Conversion),
70', Sanerivi M. ↓, Moli S. ↑,
70', Moli S. ↓, Vaihu G. ↑,
76', Pulini T. ↓, Latu T. ↑,
80', Faingaa F. (Try),
80', Harvey S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 7).

Waratahs is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Moana Pasifika has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Waratahs may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Waratahs is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Waratahs won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 90:125. (average 22.5:31.3).

Including home match between the teams, Waratahs won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:33.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Waratahs Rugby
Super Rugby
04.04.26	Chiefs - Waratahs	42:14 ✺
27.03.26	Brumbies - Waratahs	28:30 ✺
21.03.26	Waratahs - Blues	20:35 ✺
14.03.26	Reds - Waratahs	26:17 ✺
06.03.26	Waratahs - Hurricanes	19:59 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWLLL
- Moana Pasifika
Super Rugby
10.04.26	Moana Pasifika - Chiefs	17:62 ✺
27.03.26	Moana Pasifika - Highlanders	19:39 ✺
21.03.26	Moana Pasifika - Crusaders	21:50 ✺
14.03.26	Blues - Moana Pasifika	43:7 ✺
06.03.26	Chiefs - Moana Pasifika	57:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
04.04.25	Moana Pasifika - Waratahs	45:28
25.05.24	Moana Pasifika - Waratahs	27:12
03.06.23	Waratahs - Moana Pasifika	24:33
07.05.22	Moana Pasifika - Waratahs	20:26

Waratahs - Moana Pasifika: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide