Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 9

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Churchill Park (Lautoka)

Referee: Murphy D. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fijian Drua		Western Force

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.63
	1.54	25	2.49
	1.72	24.66	2.18	Watch
	1.53	23	2.5
	1.59	20	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.57)	22.73 ↑ (20.25)	2.44 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fijian Drua
58.2%

Draw
4.1%

Western Force
37.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.6%

4.5%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

4.5%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fijian Drua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Western Force has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fijian Drua than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Force than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Fijian Drua - Western Force Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hetet H.	1. Faagase S.
2. Togiatama Z.	2. Paenga-Amosa B.
3. Doge M.	3. Epenisa M.
4. Nasilasila I.	4. Molina F.
5. Tamani J.	5. Williams J.
6. Waqa E.	6. Champion de Crespigny R.
7. Murray M.	7. Daly J.
8. Canakaivata E.	8. Ekuasi V.
9. Fines-Leleiwasa I.	9. Robertson H.
10. Armstrong-Ravula I.	10. Donaldson B.
11. Droasese I.	11. Pietsch D.
12. Namoce I.	12. Kuenzle B.
13. Samusamuvodre T.	13. Stewart H.
14. Basiyalo S.	14. Bridge G.
15. Rabitu I.	15. Grealy M.
Substitutes
16. Dolokoto M.	16. Dolly N.
17. Tuqiri E.	17. Pearce M.
18. Tawake S.	18. Johnson-Holmes H.
19. Vocevoce M.	19. Faifua L.
20. Salawa K.	20. Harris W.
21. Miramira V.	21. Moyano A.
22. Kuruvoli S.	22. Beale K.
23. Mataele M.	23. Lomax Z.
Coaches
. Jackson G.	. Cron S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 7)
8', Waqa E. 🟨,
9', Epenisa M. (Try),
10', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
20', Hetet H. (Try),
21', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
21', Daly J. ↓, Harris W. ↑,
29', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Try),
30', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Conversion Goal),
34', Rabitu I. (Try),
35', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (5 - 15)
41', Murray M. ↓, Salawa K. ↑,
41', Canakaivata E. ↓, Tuwai I. ↑,
46', Faagase S. ↓, Pearce M. ↑,
46', Paenga-Amosa B. ↓, Dolly N. ↑,
46', Epenisa M. ↓, Johnson-Holmes H. ↑,
46', Champion de Crespigny R. ↓, Faifua L. ↑,
47', Hetet H. ↓, Tuqiri E. ↑,
48', Pietsch D. (Try),
48', Donaldson B. (Missed Conversion),
52', Kuenzle B. ↓, Beale K. ↑,
58', Fines-Leleiwasa I. ↓, Kuruvoli S. ↑,
59', Williams J. (Try),
59', Donaldson B. (Missed Conversion),
60', Doge M. ↓, Tawake S. ↑,
60', Pietsch D. ↓, Lomax Z. ↑,
61', Rabitu I. ↓, Mataele M. ↑,
62', Basiyalo S. (Try),
62', Armstrong-Ravula I. (Missed Conversion),
64', Togiatama Z. ↓, Dolokoto M. ↑,
70', Droasese I. 🟨,
71', Harris W. (Try),
72', Beale K. (Missed Conversion),
73', Waqa E. ↓, Miramira V. ↑,
80', Donaldson B. (Missed Penalty),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fijian Drua won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Fijian Drua may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Western Force has had a series of away games.

Fijian Drua will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Fijian Drua will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Fijian Drua won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 174:240. (average 21.8:30).

Including home matches between the teams, Fijian Drua won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 102:78. (average 25.5:19.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fijian Drua
Super Rugby
03.04.26	Crusaders - Fijian Drua	69:26 ✺
28.03.26	Blues - Fijian Drua	40:15 ✺
20.03.26	Fijian Drua - Reds	6:21 ✺
13.03.26	Fijian Drua - Brumbies	42:27 ✺
27.02.26	Fijian Drua - Hurricanes	25:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 LLLWW
- Western Force Rugby
Super Rugby
04.04.26	Reds - Western Force	19:42 ✺
28.03.26	Western Force - Chiefs	14:24 ✺
13.03.26	Hurricanes - Western Force	31:23 ✺
06.03.26	Highlanders - Western Force	39:31 ✺
27.02.26	Moana Pasifika - Western Force	19:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
16.05.25	Fijian Drua - Western Force	38:7
23.03.25	Western Force - Fijian Drua	52:15
11.05.24	Western Force - Fijian Drua	48:10
29.03.24	Fijian Drua - Western Force	31:13
12.05.23	Western Force - Fijian Drua	34:14
18.03.22	Fijian Drua - Western Force	18:20
Australian NRC
06.09.19	Fijian Drua - Western Force	15:38

Fijian Drua - Western Force: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide