Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Horowhenua-Kapiti		Wairarapa Bush

	1	X	2
	2.17	23	1.7
	2.17	24	1.72
	2.15	20	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.18)	22.33 ↓ (23)	1.7 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Horowhenua-Kapiti
42.2%

Draw
4.1%

Wairarapa Bush
53.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

3.8%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Horowhenua-Kapiti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

The chances for Wairarapa Bush have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horowhenua-Kapiti than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wairarapa Bush than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Horowhenua-Kapiti won 4.

Horowhenua-Kapiti has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Wairarapa Bush is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Horowhenua-Kapiti won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 242:172. (average 34.6:24.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Horowhenua-Kapiti won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 122:90. (average 30.5:22.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Horowhenua-Kapiti Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	Whanganui - Horowhenua-Kapiti	27:21 ✺
12.09.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - West Coast	27:26 ✺
05.09.25	King Country - Horowhenua-Kapiti	36:46 ✺
29.08.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Poverty Bay	19:26 ✺
22.08.25	Mid Canterbury - Horowhenua-Kapiti	40:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWLL
- Wairarapa Bush Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	Wairarapa Bush - Buller	73:27 ✺
13.09.25	King Country - Wairarapa Bush	24:25 ✺
05.09.25	West Coast - Wairarapa Bush	14:24 ✺
29.08.25	Wairarapa Bush - Mid Canterbury	33:36 ✺
22.08.25	North Otago - Wairarapa Bush	29:56 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
13.09.24	Wairarapa Bush - Horowhenua-Kapiti	45:62
29.10.21	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Wairarapa Bush	37:14
04.10.19	Wairarapa Bush - Horowhenua-Kapiti	25:20
27.10.18	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Wairarapa Bush	26:23
21.09.18	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Wairarapa Bush	37:21
30.09.17	Wairarapa Bush - Horowhenua-Kapiti	12:38
02.09.16	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Wairarapa Bush	22:32

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