Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 7

Date: 28 March 2025, Friday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Referee: Murphy D. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
France	CANAL+ Sport
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	Sky Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Sky Go, Sky Sports Action
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Hurricanes		Waratahs

	1	X	2
	1.17	34	5
	1.14	34	6.5
	1.17	35	5.4
	1.22	30	4	Watch
	1.17	29	5
	1.18	23	5.46
	1.17	35	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.17 ↓ (1.39)	31.43 ↑ (30)	5.25 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hurricanes
79.3%

Draw
3%

Waratahs
17.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67%

3.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.3%

3.2%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hurricanes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hurricanes's performance.

Waratahs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Waratahs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hurricanes than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hurricanes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waratahs than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Waratahs could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hurricanes - Waratahs Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Hurricanes will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Numia X.	1. Bell A.
2. Aumua A.	2. Heaven J.
3. Lomax T.	3. Tupou T.
4. Delany C.	4. Grant B.
5. Gallagher Z.	5. Amatosero M.
6. Iose B.	6. Leota R.
7. Kirifi D.	7. Gamble C.
8. Lakai P.	8. Gleeson L.
9. Roigard C.	9. Wilson T.
10. Hohepa R.	10. Creighton L.
11. Naholo K.	11. Saunders A.
12. Umaga-Jensen P.	12. Walton J.
13. Sullivan B.	13. Sua'ali'i J.
14. Punivai N.	14. Lancaster D.
15. Love R.	15. Jorgensen M.
Substitutes
16. Devery J.	16. Dobbins E.
17. Rakete-Stones P.	17. Kailea I.
18. Mafile'o T.	18. Botha D.
19. Walker-Leawere I.	19. Kalapu F.
20. Shields B.	20. Adamson J.
21. Viljoen J.	21. Grant J.
22. Fineanganofo F.	22. Edmed T.
23. Banks K.	23. Foketi L.
Coaches
. Laidlaw C.	. McKellar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 7)
4', Creighton L. (Try),
5', Creighton L. (Conversion Goal),
8', Naholo K. (Try),
9', Hohepa R. (Missed Conversion),
14', Jorgensen M. ↓, Foketi L. ↑,
19', Naholo K. (Try),
20', Hohepa R. (Missed Conversion),
21', Creighton L. ↓, Edmed T. ↑,
36', Aumua A. (Try),
37', Hohepa R. (Conversion Goal),
38', Roigard C. (Try),
38', Lancaster D. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
39', Hohepa R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (33 - 5)
41', Grant J. ↓, Lancaster D. ↑,
44', Saunders A. (Try),
45', Edmed T. (Missed Conversion),
46', Amatosero M. ↓, Kalapu F. ↑,
52', (Penalty Try),
52', Heaven J. ↓, Dobbins E. ↑,
53', Walton J. 🟨,
53', Lomax T. ↓, Mafile'o T. ↑,
57', Aumua A. ↓, Devery J. ↑,
57', Numia X. ↓, Rakete-Stones P. ↑,
57', Delany C. ↓, Tucker W. ↑,
58', Punivai N. (Try),
59', Hohepa R. (Conversion Goal),
59', Lakai P. ↓, Shields B. ↑,
59', Roigard C. ↓, Viljoen J. ↑,
59', Umaga-Jensen P. ↓, Fineanganofo F. ↑,
59', Tupou T. ↓, Botha D. ↑,
59', Bell A. ↓, Kailea I. ↑,
59', Gamble C. ↓, Adamson J. ↑,
61', Shields B. (Try),
62', Hohepa R. (Conversion Goal),
63', Wilson T. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
66', Hohepa R. ↓, Banks K. ↑,
69', Sullivan B. (Try),
70', Love R. (Missed Conversion),
79', Naholo K. (Try),
80', Love R. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hurricanes won 5.

Recent matches Hurricanes is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Waratahs is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Waratahs could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Waratahs have a series of home games.

In this match Hurricanes is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Hurricanes won 9 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 375:268 (average 34.1:24.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Hurricanes won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 178:115 (average 35.6:23).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hurricanes Rugby
Super Rugby
14.03.25	Highlanders - Hurricanes	18:20 ✺
08.03.25	Moana Pasifika - Hurricanes	40:31 ✺
01.03.25	Hurricanes - Blues	29:33 ✺
21.02.25	Hurricanes - Fijian Drua	38:34 ✺
14.02.25	Crusaders - Hurricanes	33:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWL
- Waratahs Rugby
Super Rugby
22.03.25	Waratahs - Brumbies	28:23 ✺
15.03.25	Reds - Waratahs	35:15 ✺
08.03.25	Waratahs - Western Force	34:10 ✺
28.02.25	Waratahs - Fijian Drua	29:24 ✺
14.02.25	Waratahs - Highlanders	37:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
03.05.24	Hurricanes - Waratahs	41:12
17.03.23	Hurricanes - Waratahs	34:17
14.05.22	Waratahs - Hurricanes	18:22
14.05.21	Waratahs - Hurricanes	48:64
16.02.19	Waratahs - Hurricanes	19:20
07.04.17	Hurricanes - Waratahs	38:28
09.07.16	Waratahs - Hurricanes	17:28

Hurricanes - Waratahs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide