Match Info
Super Rugby - Round 15Date: 22 May 2026, FridayLocation: Sydney Football Stadium (Sydney)Referee: O'Keeffe B. (Nzl)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Argentina | Disney+ |
Australia | Stan Sport |
Brazil | Disney+ |
Mexico | Disney+ |
Peru | Disney+ |
Uruguay | Disney+ |
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Waratahs |
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Brumbies |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.63 |
23 |
1.53 |
|
 |
2.41 |
24 |
1.58 |
|
 |
2.52 |
22.69 |
1.58 |
|
 |
2.5 |
26 |
1.5 |
|
 |
2.62 |
19.1 |
1.54 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.54 ↑ (2.37) |
22.96 ↑ (20) |
1.55 ↓ (1.62) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 54.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)
- The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Waratahs 36.4% | Draw 4% | Brumbies 59.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Waratahs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)Brumbies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waratahs than the current prediction. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brumbies than the current prediction. (-2.8%)Waratahs - Brumbies Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 58.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:30 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. Barrett J.
| 1. Slipper J.
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2. Moananu I.
| 2. Pollard B.
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3. Botha D.
| 3. Alaalatoa A.
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4. Philip M. (C)
| 4. Neville C.
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5. Amatosero M.
| 5. Shaw L.
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6. Halaholo C.
| 6. Valetini R.
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7. Gamble C.
| 7. Scott R.
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8. Scott-Young A.
| 8. MacPherson T.
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9. Wilson T.
| 9. Lonergan R. (C)
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10. Bowen J.
| 10. Meredith D.
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11. Harvey S.
| 11. Toole C.
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12. Creighton L.
| 12. Feliuai D.
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13. Reilly T.
| 13. Pritchard K.
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14. Potter H.
| 14. Sapsford O.
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15. Jorgensen M.
| 15. Wright T.
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| Substitutes |
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16. Finau O.
| 16. Lonergan L.
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17. Kailea I.
| 17. Schoupp B.
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18. Ranawai A.
| 18. Van Nek R.
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19. Grant B.
| 19. Frost N.
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20. Adamson J.
| 20. Reimer L.
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21. McDonald M.
| 21. Thorn K.
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22. Debreczeni J.
| 22. Edmed T.
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23. Walton J.
| 23. Muirhead A.
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| Coaches |
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. McKellar D.
| . Larkham S.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 14)
- 20', Pollard B. (Try),
- 21', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 30', Gamble C. 🟨,
- 32', Neville C. (Try),
- 33', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 36', Wilson T. ↓, McDonald M. ↑,
- 2nd Half (14 - 7)
- 41', Pollard B. ↓, Lonergan L. ↑,
- 47', Neville C. ↓, Frost N. ↑,
- 51', Alaalatoa A. (Try),
- 52', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
- 52', Slipper J. ↓, Schoupp B. ↑,
- 52', Scott R. ↓, Reimer L. ↑,
- 54', Alaalatoa A. ↓, Van Nek R. ↑,
- 56', Botha D. ↓, Ranawai A. ↑,
- 56', Barrett J. ↓, Kailea I. ↑,
- 56', Creighton L. ↓, Walton J. ↑,
- 58', Lonergan L. 🟨,
- 62', Kailea I. (Try),
- 63', Harvey S. (Conversion Goal),
- 64', Gamble C. ↓, Adamson J. ↑,
- 64', Bowen J. ↓, Debreczeni J. ↑,
- 64', Pritchard K. ↓, Creighton H. ↑,
- 67', Moananu I. ↓, Finau O. ↑,
- 67', Muirhead A. ↓, Pollard B. ↑,
- 69', Jorgensen M. (Try),
- 70', Harvey S. (Conversion Goal),
- 70', Pollard B. ↓, Muirhead A. ↑,
- 75', Amatosero M. ↓, Grant B. ↑,
Preview
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Waratahs won 3.The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.Waratahs may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. Brumbies might have a minor edge in this game.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Waratahs won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 439:651. (average 22:32.6).Including home matches between the teams, Waratahs won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 206:260. (average 22.9:28.9).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Super Rugby | | | 27.03.26 | Brumbies - Waratahs | 28:30 | | Super Rugby AUS | | | 27.09.25 | Brumbies - Waratahs | 34:42 | | Super Rugby | | | 03.05.25 | Brumbies - Waratahs | 40:17 | | 22.03.25 | Waratahs - Brumbies | 28:23 | | 11.05.24 | Waratahs - Brumbies | 21:29 | | 06.04.24 | Brumbies - Waratahs | 40:16 | | 01.04.23 | Brumbies - Waratahs | 40:36 |
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