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Reds vs Waratahs Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, March 14, 2026)

Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 5

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane)

Referee: O'Keeffe B. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+


	Reds		Waratahs

	1	X	2
	1.2	34	4.5
	1.23	29	4.2
	1.27	24.85	4.04
	1.25	26	4
	1.21	23	4.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.45)	27.37 ↑ (20.71)	4.26 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reds
74.9%

Draw
3.4%

Waratahs
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

4.5%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Reds's performance.

Waratahs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Waratahs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Reds will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Reds (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ross A.	1. Lambert T.
2. Nasser J.	2. Dobbins E.
3. Nonggorr Z.	3. Botha D.
4. Uru S.	4. Philip M.
5. Salakaia-Loto L.	5. Blyth A.
6. Brial J.	6. Halaholo C.
7. Mcreight F.	7. Gamble C.
8. Wilson H.	8. Samu P.
9. Werchon L.	9. Gordon J.
10. Gordon C.	10. Debreczeni J.
11. Ryan T.	11. Harvey S.
12. Henry I.	12. Walton J.
13. Flook J.	13. Reilly T.
14. Daugunu F.	14. Jorgensen M.
15. Campbell J.	15. Hendren J.
Substitutes
16. Asiata R.	16. Moananu I.
17. Blake G.	17. Kailea I.
18. Toomaga-Allen J.	18. Amone S.
19. Muller H.	19. Amatosero M.
20. Latu V.	20. Talataina L.
21. Thomas K.	21. Wilson T.
22. McLaughlin-Phillips H.	22. Creighton L.
23. Pritchard T.	23. Potter H.
Coaches
. Kiss L.	. McKellar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
6', Wilson H. (Try),
7', Werchon L. (Conversion Goal),
16', Adamson J. (Try),
17', Hendren J. (Conversion Goal),
39', Dobbins E. ↓, Moananu I. ↑,
2nd Half (19 - 10)
41', Moananu I. ↓, Dobbins E. ↑,
45', Flook J. ↓, Pritchard T. ↑,
51', Nonggorr Z. ↓, Toomaga-Allen J. ↑,
51', Ross A. ↓, Blake G. ↑,
53', Halaholo C. ↓, Talataina L. ↑,
54', Gordon J. ↓, Wilson T. ↑,
57', Nasser J. ↓, Asiata R. ↑,
57', Blyth A. ↓, Amatosero M. ↑,
58', Moananu I. (Try),
64', Wilson H. ↓, Latu V. ↑,
64', Gordon C. (Try),
65', Hendren J. ↓, Potter H. ↑,
66', Potter H. (Try),
69', Debreczeni J. ↓, Creighton L. ↑,
71', Botha D. ↓, Amone S. ↑,
72', Henry I. (Try),
72', Campbell J. (Conversion Goal),
75', Gordon C. (Try),
75', Uru S. ↓, Muller H. ↑,
76', Campbell J. (Conversion Goal),
77', Gordon C. ↓, McLaughlin-Phillips H. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Reds won 3.

Waratahs may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Reds is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Reds won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 521:558. (average 26.1:27.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Reds won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 316:258. (average 31.6:25.8).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reds Rugby
Super Rugby
07.03.26	Brumbies - Reds	31:34 ✺
27.02.26	Reds - Highlanders	31:14 ✺
13.02.26	Waratahs - Reds	36:12 ✺
Super Rugby AUS
28.09.25	Western Force - Reds	22:47 ✺
20.09.25	Waratahs - Reds	47:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWLWL
- Waratahs Rugby
Super Rugby
06.03.26	Waratahs - Hurricanes	19:59 ✺
20.02.26	Waratahs - Fijian Drua	36:13 ✺
13.02.26	Waratahs - Reds	36:12 ✺
Super Rugby AUS
05.10.25	Western Force - Waratahs	26:33 ✺
27.09.25	Brumbies - Waratahs	34:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
13.02.26	Waratahs - Reds	36:12
Super Rugby AUS
20.09.25	Waratahs - Reds	47:19
Super Rugby
09.05.25	Waratahs - Reds	21:28
15.03.25	Reds - Waratahs	35:15
31.05.24	Waratahs - Reds	26:27
24.02.24	Reds - Waratahs	40:22
06.05.23	Reds - Waratahs	24:32

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