Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 16

Date: 29 May 2026, Friday

Location: One NZ Stadium (Christchurch)

Referee: Berry N. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
France	CANAL+ Sport
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Crusaders		Hurricanes

	1	X	2
	1.22	26	4.33
	1.23	35	4
	1.24	28.21	4.27	Watch
	1.2	34	4
	1.21	26	4.38
	1.36	27	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.43)	29.37 ↑ (19.25)	4.02 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crusaders
74%

Draw
3.1%

Hurricanes
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

4.7%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

5.1%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crusaders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crusaders's performance.

Hurricanes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hurricanes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crusaders than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hurricanes than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hurricanes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Crusaders - Hurricanes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 36:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bower G.	1. Numia X.
2. Taylor C.	2. Tuputupu R.
3. Newell F.	3. Lomax T.
4. Shalfoon A.	4. Plummer H.
5. Hannah J.	5. Walker-Leawere I.
6. Gardiner D.	6. Shields B.
7. Blackadder E.	7. Flanders D.
8. Lio-Willie C.	8. Poliko A.
9. Hotham N.	9. Roigard C.
10. Reihana R.	10. Harkin C.
11. Reece S.	11. Naholo K.
12. Havili D.	12. Rova J.
13. McLeod D.	13. Timu J.
14. Fihaki C.	14. Filimone T.
15. McNicholl J.	15. Moorby J.
Substitutes
16. Letiu M.	16. Devery J.
17. Brewis F.	17. Rakete-Stones P.
18. Calder S.	18. Mafile'o T.
19. Jack L.	19. Allen T.
20. Lee J.	20. Petaia M.
21. Preston K.	21. Viljoen J.
22. Kemara T.	22. Cashmore L.
23. Roberts C.	23. Sullivan B.
Coaches
. Penney R.	. Laidlaw C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 7)
9', Reece S. (Try),
9', Reihana R. ↓, Kemara T. ↑,
10', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
13', Shields B. (Try),
14', Harkin C. (Conversion Goal),
25', Hotham N. (Try),
26', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
31', Newell F. ↓, Calder S. ↑,
32', McNicholl J. (Try),
33', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
35', Lio-Willie C. (Try),
36', Kemara T. (Missed Conversion),
37', Walker-Leawere I. ↓, Allen T. ↑,
2nd Half (21 - 7)
41', Lomax T. ↓, Mafile'o T. ↑,
41', Numia X. ↓, Rakete-Stones P. ↑,
41', Roigard C. ↓, Viljoen J. ↑,
47', Tuputupu R. ↓, Devery J. ↑,
47', Hotham N. ↓, Preston K. ↑,
47', Havili D. ↓, Roberts C. ↑,
52', Moorby J. ↓, Sullivan B. ↑,
52', Hannah J. ↓, Jack L. ↑,
52', Taylor C. ↓, Letiu M. ↑,
52', Bower G. ↓, Brewis F. ↑,
55', Shields B. ↓, Petaia M. ↑,
61', Lee J. ↓, Mathis O. ↑,
63', Letiu M. (Try),
64', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
65', Naholo K. ↓, Cashmore L. ↑,
71', Rakete-Stones P. (Try),
71', Harkin C. (Conversion Goal),
73', Preston K. (Try),
74', Kemara T. (Conversion Goal),
74', Calder S. ↓, Bower G. ↑,
77', Reece S. (Try),
78', Reece S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 2.

Crusaders has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hurricanes is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Crusaders may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Crusaders is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Crusaders won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 556:471. (average 27.8:23.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Crusaders won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 302:241. (average 27.5:21.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crusaders Rugby
Super Rugby
22.05.26	Crusaders - Chiefs	36:32 ✺
08.05.26	Crusaders - Blues	36:20 ✺
01.05.26	Hurricanes - Crusaders	38:31 ✺
24.04.26	Crusaders - Waratahs	35:20 ✺
18.04.26	Western Force - Crusaders	31:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWL
- Hurricanes Rugby
Super Rugby
23.05.26	Hurricanes - Highlanders	45:28 ✺
16.05.26	Blues - Hurricanes	24:47 ✺
09.05.26	Moana Pasifika - Hurricanes	17:50 ✺
01.05.26	Hurricanes - Crusaders	38:31 ✺
25.04.26	Hurricanes - Brumbies	45:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
01.05.26	Hurricanes - Crusaders	38:31
11.04.25	Hurricanes - Crusaders	24:31
14.02.25	Crusaders - Hurricanes	33:25
15.03.24	Crusaders - Hurricanes	10:14
03.06.23	Hurricanes - Crusaders	27:26
09.04.22	Hurricanes - Crusaders	21:24
19.02.22	Crusaders - Hurricanes	42:32

Crusaders - Hurricanes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide