Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Play Offs - Final

Date: 19 June 2026, Friday

Location: Croke Park (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Leinster		Blue Bulls

	1	X	2
	1.5	23	2.63
	1.48	22	2.7
	1.55	20.63	2.64	Watch
	1.53	23	2.6
	1.63	21	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.33)	21.93 ↓ (22.75)	2.59 ↓ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
60.1%

Draw
4.2%

Blue Bulls
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

4.1%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.4%

3.6%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leinster's form might have worsened.

Blue Bulls has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Blue Bulls's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leinster than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Blue Bulls than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Blue Bulls, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Leinster - Blue Bulls Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Blue Bulls will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:21

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (22 - 0)
2nd Half (14 - 7)

Preview

Neutral location - Croke Park.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 2.

Leinster is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Blue Bulls is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Leinster has had a series of home games.

Leinster might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Leinster will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 214:198. (average 26.8:24.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 136:51. (average 34:12.8).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Leinster: 29.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Bulls	2	1	0	1	69:39	6
14	Leinster	2	0	0	2	46:53	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
06.06.26	Leinster - Stormers	20:11 ✺
30.05.26	Leinster - Lions	59:10 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
23.05.26	Leinster - Bordeaux Bègles	19:41 ✺
United Rugby Championship
16.05.26	Leinster - Ospreys	68:14 ✺
09.05.26	Leinster - Lions	31:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWLWW
- Blue Bulls Rugby
United Rugby Championship
06.06.26	Glasgow Warriors - Blue Bulls	21:22 ✺
30.05.26	Blue Bulls - Munster	45:14 ✺
16.05.26	Blue Bulls - Benetton Treviso	45:19 ✺
09.05.26	Blue Bulls - Zebre	54:19 ✺
25.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Blue Bulls	21:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
04.10.25	Blue Bulls - Leinster	39:31
14.06.25	Leinster - Blue Bulls	32:7
22.03.25	Blue Bulls - Leinster	21:20
15.06.24	Blue Bulls - Leinster	25:20
29.03.24	Leinster - Blue Bulls	47:14
22.04.23	Blue Bulls - Leinster	62:7
10.06.22	Leinster - Blue Bulls	26:27

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