Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Play Offs - Final

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, France 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
United-kingdom	ITV 4, ITV X, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	TV5 Monde


	Leinster		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	2.88	23	1.44
	2.8	26	1.44
	5.30	22.51	1.18	Watch
	2.63	23	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↓ (3.43)	23.63 ↓ (24.16)	1.4 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Leinster
27.9%

Draw
4%

Bordeaux Bègles
68%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

3.8%

69.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

3.6%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Bordeaux Bègles has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leinster than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Leinster - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bordeaux Bègles will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:30

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Porter A.	1. Poirot J.
2. Sheehan D.	2. Lamothe M.
3. Clarkson T.	3. Sadie C.
4. McCarthy J.	4. Palu B.
5. Ryan J.	5. Coleman A.
6. Conan J.	6. Bochaton P.
7. van der Flier J.	7. Woki C.
8. Sweetman-Doris C. (C)	8. Gazzotti M.
9. Gibson-Park J.	9. Lucu M. (C)
10. Byrne H.	10. Jalibert M.
11. Ioane R.	11. Bielle-Biarrey L.
12. Henshaw R.	12. Moefana Y.
13. Ringrose G.	13. Penaud D.
14. O'Brien T.	14. Uberti P.
15. Keenan H.	15. Rayasi S.
Substitutes
16. Kelleher R.	16. Barlot G.
17. McCarthy P.	17. Boniface U.
18. Furlong T.	18. Tameifuna B.
19. Mangan D.	19. Swinton L.
20. Deegan M.	20. Matiu T.
21. McGrath L.	21. Vergnes-Taillefer B.
22. Frawley C.	22. Retiere A.
23. Osborne J.	23. Reus H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 35)
8', O'Brien T. (Try),
9', Byrne H. (Conversion Goal),
13', Lucu M. (Try),
14', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
17', Uberti P. (Try),
18', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
24', Bielle-Biarrey L. (Try),
25', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
36', Bielle-Biarrey L. (Try),
36', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
40+2', Moefana Y. (Try),
40+2', Lucu M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 6)
41', Lucu M. 🟨,
45', McCarthy J. (Try),
59', Lucu M. (Penalty Goal),
64', Lucu M. (Penalty Goal),
71', Ringrose G. (Try),
71', Frawley C. (Conversion Goal),
75', Boniface U. 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location. Neutral location - Estadio San Mamés.

Leinster is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bordeaux Bègles has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bordeaux Bègles could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
16.05.26	Leinster - Ospreys	68:14 ✺
09.05.26	Leinster - Lions	31:7 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
02.05.26	Leinster - Toulon	29:25 ✺
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Leinster	29:26 ✺
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLW
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
French Top 14
16.05.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Perpignan	37:32 ✺
09.05.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Bordeaux Bègles	38:40 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.05.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Bath	38:26 ✺
French Top 14
25.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Montpellier	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	La Rochelle - Bordeaux Bègles	45:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWWLL

Upcoming Matches