Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 18

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Leinster		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.03	51	11
	1.04	50	9.4
	1.03	41	11
	1.04	50	14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↓ (1.07)	48 ↑ (34.25)	11.35 ↑ (8.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-24)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
89.9%

Draw
1.9%

Ospreys
8.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

86.1%

2.7%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Leinster - Ospreys Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 39:15

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (28 - 7)
2nd Half (40 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 4.

Leinster is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ospreys has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leinster may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leinster is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 547:296. (average 27.4:14.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 347:136. (average 34.7:13.6).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Leinster: 29.05% Ospreys: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
13	Leinster	2	0	0	2	46:53	3
15	Ospreys	2	0	0	2	43:76	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
09.05.26	Leinster - Lions	31:7 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
02.05.26	Leinster - Toulon	29:25 ✺
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Leinster	29:26 ✺
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.26	Leinster - Sale Sharks	43:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLWW
- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
09.05.26	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	27:20 ✺
24.04.26	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	24:21 ✺
18.04.26	Ospreys - Sharks	21:17 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Ulster - Ospreys	28:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Connacht - Ospreys	21:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
14.02.25	Ospreys - Leinster	19:22
11.05.24	Leinster - Ospreys	61:14
07.01.23	Ospreys - Leinster	19:24
19.02.22	Leinster - Ospreys	29:7
19.03.21	Leinster - Ospreys	19:24
08.11.20	Ospreys - Leinster	7:26
21.02.20	Ospreys - Leinster	13:21

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