Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 3

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Ireland	TG4 Ireland
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, URC


	Leinster		Cardiff Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.02	51	11
	1.02	40	12
	1.01	38.94	14.55	Watch
	1.01	32	9.6
	1.02	50	23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↓ (1.03)	42.39 ↑ (37.09)	14.03 ↑ (12.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-24)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
91.2%

Draw
2.2%

Cardiff Rugby
6.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

90.1%

2.5%

7.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Leinster - Cardiff Rugby Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

AH +22.5 - Cardiff (2.00) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 40:16

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (22 - 5)
2nd Half (7 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 3.

Leinster may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Leinster holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Leinster has recorded 16 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 544:314 (averaging 30.2:17.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Leinster against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 332:153 goals (averaging 36.9:17 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Cardiff Rugby	3	2	0	1	66:71	9
10	Leinster	3	1	0	2	75:58	8

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Leinster: 29.87% Cardiff Rugby: 0.81%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
03.10.26	Sharks - Leinster	26:20 ✺
26.09.26	Lions - Leinster	27:26 ✺
19.06.26	Leinster - Blue Bulls	36:7 ✺
06.06.26	Leinster - Stormers	20:11 ✺
30.05.26	Leinster - Lions	59:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWWW
- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
02.10.26	Cardiff Rugby - Zebre	40:27 ✺
26.09.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	15:21 ✺
Club Friendly Rugby Union
19.09.26	Cardiff Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	28:33 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.05.26	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	44:21 ✺
15.05.26	Cardiff Rugby - Stormers	22:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
27.02.26	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	8:7
01.03.25	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	42:24
02.03.24	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	20:33
28.01.23	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	38:14
29.01.22	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	29:27
22.11.20	Leinster - Cardiff Rugby	40:5
31.08.18	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	32:33

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