Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 1

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Ellis Park Stadium (Johannesburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Ireland	TG4 app Ireland, TG4 Ireland
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, URC


	Lions		Leinster

	1	X	2
	1.4	21	3
	1.52	20	2.6
	1.49	20.7	2.78	Watch
	1.49	19	2.5
	1.51	21	2.76
	1.52	20	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (3.38)	20.28 ↓ (22.12)	2.71 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lions
61.6%

Draw
4.5%

Leinster
33.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.3%

4.2%

68.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+34.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lions's performance.

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-34.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leinster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lions - Leinster Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Lions will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lions (votes: 2 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

AH +7.5 - Leinster (1.83) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 19)
2nd Half (10 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lions won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Lions (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Lions holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Lions has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 116:186 (averaging 19.3:31 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lions against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 80:51 goals (averaging 40:25.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Lions	3	2	0	1	77:102	9
10	Leinster	3	1	0	2	75:58	8

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Leinster: 29.87%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lions Rugby
Currie Cup
06.09.26	Griquas - Lions	52:12 ✺
28.08.26	Lions - Stormers XXIII	36:12 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
25.08.26	Lions - New Zealand	35:41 ✺
Currie Cup
21.08.26	Sharks - Lions	22:17 ✺
14.08.26	Lions - Boland Cavaliers	29:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL
- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
19.06.26	Leinster - Blue Bulls	36:7 ✺
06.06.26	Leinster - Stormers	20:11 ✺
30.05.26	Leinster - Lions	59:10 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
23.05.26	Leinster - Bordeaux Bègles	19:41 ✺
United Rugby Championship
16.05.26	Leinster - Ospreys	68:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
30.05.26	Leinster - Lions	59:10
09.05.26	Leinster - Lions	31:7
26.10.24	Leinster - Lions	24:6
20.04.24	Lions - Leinster	44:12
15.04.23	Lions - Leinster	36:39
25.02.22	Leinster - Lions	21:13

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