Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Cardiff Rugby		Exeter Chiefs

	1	X	2
	2.3	21	1.67
	2.3	15.5	1.66
	2.05	19	1.82
	1.97	17	1.77
	2	15	1.83
	2.05	19	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.02)	17.75 ↓ (17.8)	1.76 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
43.1%

Draw
5.1%

Exeter Chiefs
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

5.1%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Cardiff Rugby - Exeter Chiefs Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:30

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Preview

Exeter may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Cardiff has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 42:94 (averaging 14:31.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cardiff against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 13:19 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
30.05.26	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	44:21 ✺
15.05.26	Cardiff Rugby - Stormers	22:16 ✺
08.05.26	Glasgow Warriors - Cardiff Rugby	40:17 ✺
24.04.26	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	24:21 ✺
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWLWW
- Exeter Chiefs
English Premiership Rugby Cup
12.09.26	Exeter Chiefs - Bristol Rugby	45:21 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
20.06.26	Northampton Saints - Exeter Chiefs	26:17 ✺
13.06.26	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	26:27 ✺
06.06.26	Exeter Chiefs - Saracens	32:12 ✺
31.05.26	Leicester Tigers - Exeter Chiefs	26:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.26	Exeter Chiefs - Cardiff Rugby	31:0
Heineken Cup
18.01.14	Cardiff Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	13:19
13.10.13	Exeter Chiefs - Cardiff Rugby	44:29

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