Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 18

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Cardiff Arms Park (Cardiff)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, S4C Clic, S4C Digital


	Cardiff Rugby		Stormers

	1	X	2
	3.4	26	1.33
	3.7	24	1.29
	3.41	22.41	1.36	Watch
	3.4	23	1.3
	3.75	23	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (3.09)	23.68 ↑ (20.25)	1.32 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Rugby
26.1%

Draw
3.9%

Stormers
70%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

4.5%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

4.6%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Stormers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Rugby than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stormers than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stormers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Cardiff Rugby - Stormers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:28

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 10)
2nd Half (5 - 6)

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Cardiff has had a series of away games.

In this match, Stormers is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Cardiff won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 88:122. (average 22:30.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 61:48. (average 30.5:24).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Stormers: 16.77% Cardiff Rugby: 0.81%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Cardiff Rugby	2	2	0	0	61:42	9
8	Stormers	2	1	0	1	42:32	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
08.05.26	Glasgow Warriors - Cardiff Rugby	40:17 ✺
24.04.26	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	24:21 ✺
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Cardiff Rugby	38:35 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.03.26	Sharks - Cardiff Rugby	21:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWWLL
- Stormers Rugby
United Rugby Championship
08.05.26	Ulster - Stormers	38:38 ✺
25.04.26	Stormers - Glasgow Warriors	48:12 ✺
18.04.26	Stormers - Connacht	24:33 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
04.04.26	Toulon - Stormers	28:27 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Stormers - Edinburgh	33:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
16.05.25	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	34:24
24.11.23	Cardiff Rugby - Stormers	31:24
22.10.22	Cardiff Rugby - Stormers	30:24
20.03.22	Stormers - Cardiff Rugby	40:3

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