Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 1

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 7


	Lions		Benetton Treviso

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.6
	1.49	25	2.65
	1.54	24.59	2.61	Watch
	1.5	23	2.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.28)	23.4 ↓ (24.5)	2.62 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lions
60.9%

Draw
3.9%

Benetton Treviso
35.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

72.3%

3.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lions's form might have worsened.

Benetton Treviso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benetton Treviso's recent form is better than expected.

Lions - Benetton Treviso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kotze S.	1. Gallo T.
2. Marais F.	2. Bernasconi B.
3. Ntlabakanye A.	3. Ferrari S.
4. Oosthuizen E.	4. Cannone N.
5. Nothnagel R.	5. Snyman E.
6. Cairns J.	6. Zuliani M.
7. Venter R.	7. Lamaro M. (C)
8. Horn F. (C)	8. Izekor A.
9. van den Berg M.	9. Uren A.
10. Smith C.	10. Umaga J.
11. Keyter E.	11. Mendy I.
12. Bronson M.	12. Marin L.
13. Cronje E.	13. Menoncello T.
14. Mpeku K.	14. Lynagh L.
15. Horn Q.	15. Smith R.
Substitutes
16. Brandon M.	16. Gasperini N.
17. Davids E.	17. Spagnolo M.
18. Schoeman R.	18. Zilocchi G.
19. Landsberg D.	19. Ruzza F.
20. Du Plessis R.	20. Fa'aso'o S.
21. Steyn N.	21. Favretto R.
22. Kriel R.	22. Garbisi A.
23. Lombard G.	23. Albornoz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 8)
6', Smith R. (Try),
10', Smith C. (Penalty Goal),
13', Umaga J. (Penalty Goal),
38', Mpeku K. (Try),
38', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (8 - 18)
46', Venter R. (Try),
56', Smith C. (Penalty Goal),
59', Albornoz T. (Penalty Goal),
67', Mpeku K. 🟨,
70', Marin L. (Try),
71', Albornoz T. (Conversion Goal),
74', Marin L. (Try),
78', Albornoz T. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lions won 1.

Benetton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lions is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lions won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 142:182. (average 23.7:30.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lions won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 68:71. (average 34:35.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lions Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Blue Bulls - Lions	33:43 ✺
25.10.25	Lions - Ulster	49:31 ✺
18.10.25	Lions - Llanelli Scarlets	29:18 ✺
11.10.25	Benetton Treviso - Lions	41:15 ✺
05.10.25	Zebre - Lions	22:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWWLL
- Benetton Treviso rugby
United Rugby Championship
28.11.25	Ulster - Benetton Treviso	47:13 ✺
25.10.25	Benetton Treviso - Stormers	16:31 ✺
17.10.25	Edinburgh - Benetton Treviso	43:0 ✺
11.10.25	Benetton Treviso - Lions	41:15 ✺
04.10.25	Benetton Treviso - Glasgow Warriors	16:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
11.10.25	Benetton Treviso - Lions	41:15
19.04.25	Lions - Benetton Treviso	31:42
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.24	Benetton Treviso - Lions	27:17
United Rugby Championship
05.11.23	Benetton Treviso - Lions	15:10
25.03.23	Benetton Treviso - Lions	28:32
30.04.22	Lions - Benetton Treviso	37:29

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